Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 preview
In the Segunda Liga fixture between Tondela and Felgueiras 1932, Tondela has a 47% chance of winning, while Felgueiras 1932 stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Tondela, with an expected goals figure of 1.30 compared to Felgueiras 1932's 0.99.
While Tondela's recent form shows six matches with five wins and one loss, Felgueiras 1932 has a mixed record with two wins, three losses, and one draw in their last six games. The model suggests a 40% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, indicating that while Tondela may dominate, Felgueiras could still find a way to contribute to the scoreline.
Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932: model vs market
| Source | Tondela | Draw | Felgueiras 1932 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 23% |
| Published | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Tondela and Felgueiras 1932 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (Tondela / Felgueiras 1932)
- 1.25 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Tondela / Felgueiras 1932)
- 0.84 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tondela goals. Columns: Felgueiras 1932 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tondela | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Felgueiras 1932 | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tondela or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Felgueiras 1932) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tondela win by 2+ | 20% | 4.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tondela and Felgueiras 1932 recent form
Tondela
5W 0D 1L
Felgueiras 1932
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tondela at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Felgueiras 1932 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tondela at home only, Felgueiras 1932 away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Amarante vs FC Porto B — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Portimonense v Torreense — match page 2026-10-31
- Leixoes vs Sporting CP B — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Benfica B vs Chaves 2026-10-31
- União de Leiria v AVS — match page 2026-10-31
- Vizela vs Academica 2026-11-01
- Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Tondela, previous: AVS v Tondela analysis
- Felgueiras 1932, previous: Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa prediction