União de Leiria vs AVS preview
In the match between União de Leiria and AVS, the 1X2 probabilities show União de Leiria at 49% to win, while both a draw and an AVS win sit at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 8% chance according to our model.
However, the expected goals indicate a competitive match, with União de Leiria at 1.04 and AVS at 1.33. This suggests that while União de Leiria may have a slight edge, AVS could easily find the net, impacting the chances for both teams to score and the potential for Over 2.5 goals, which stands at 42%. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
União de Leiria vs AVS: model vs market
| Source | União de Leiria | Draw | AVS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 30% | 42% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 26% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -17.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
União de Leiria vs AVS odds movement
Median bookmaker price on União de Leiria, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| União de Leiria | 1.67 | 1.67 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.86 | 3.86 | +0.00 |
| AVS | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
União de Leiria and AVS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.37
- Attack rating (União de Leiria / AVS)
- 1.14 / 1.12
- Defence rating (União de Leiria / AVS)
- 1.02 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
União de Leiria vs AVS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: União de Leiria goals. Columns: AVS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
União de Leiria vs AVS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for União de Leiria vs AVS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União de Leiria | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| AVS | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (União de Leiria or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or AVS) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | União de Leiria win by 2+ | 11% | 9.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
União de Leiria and AVS recent form
União de Leiria
3W 2D 1L
AVS
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
União de Leiria at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
AVS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: União de Leiria at home only, AVS away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Amarante vs FC Porto B — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Portimonense v Torreense — match page 2026-10-31
- Leixoes vs Sporting CP B — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Benfica B vs Chaves 2026-10-31
- Vizela vs Academica 2026-11-01
- Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- União de Leiria, previous: FC Porto B v União de Leiria analysis
- AVS, previous: AVS v Tondela analysis