Torreense vs União de Leiria preview
In the match between Torreense and União de Leiria, the 1X2 probabilities show Torreense at 40%, União de Leiria at 33%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance according to our model.
Torreense has an expected goals figure of 1.21, while União de Leiria is at 1.47. Both teams to score has a 55% probability, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 50%. Torreense's recent form includes 3 wins and 3 losses, while União de Leiria has 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6 matches. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Torreense vs União de Leiria: model vs market
| Source | Torreense | Draw | União de Leiria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Published | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Torreense vs União de Leiria odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Torreense, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torreense | 2.10 | 2.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.42 | -0.08 |
| União de Leiria | 3.10 | 3.13 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Torreense and União de Leiria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Torreense / União de Leiria)
- 0.96 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Torreense / União de Leiria)
- 1.12 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Torreense vs União de Leiria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Torreense goals. Columns: União de Leiria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Torreense vs União de Leiria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Torreense vs União de Leiria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torreense | 40% | 2.48 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| União de Leiria | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Torreense or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or União de Leiria) | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Torreense win by 2+ | 13% | 7.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Torreense and União de Leiria recent form
Torreense
2W 1D 3L
União de Leiria
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Torreense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
União de Leiria away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Torreense at home only, União de Leiria away only.
Torreense vs União de Leiria head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Torreense 2 · draws 0 · União de Leiria 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Torreense | 3-1 | União de Leiria | Segunda Liga |
| 2026-01-11 | Torreense | 3-1 | União de Leiria | Taça de Portugal |
| 2025-08-29 | União de Leiria | 1-0 | Torreense | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- AVS vs Vizela 2026-11-06
- Felgueiras 1932 v Leixoes — match page 2026-11-07
- Chaves vs Penafiel — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Academica v Amarante — match page 2026-11-07
- Feirense v Lusitânia Lourosa — match page 2026-11-08
- FC Porto B vs Portimonense — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Farense vs Benfica B 2026-11-08
- Sporting CP B vs Tondela 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Torreense, previous: Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia prediction
- Torreense, next: Torreense vs Benfica: odds and pick
- União de Leiria, previous: União de Leiria – AVS, 2026-10-31
- União de Leiria, next: União de Leiria – Leça, 2026-11-22