Chaves vs Penafiel preview
In the upcoming match between Chaves and Penafiel, the 1X2 probabilities show Penafiel at 55%, with a predicted scoreline of 1-2 (9%). Chaves has an expected goals figure of 1.47, while Penafiel's is higher at 2.29. This suggests Penafiel is likely to outperform Chaves in terms of scoring.
However, the match could deviate from this forecast if Chaves manages to leverage their recent form, which includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 70%, and with Over 2.5 goals at 72%, there is potential for a high-scoring encounter.
Chaves vs Penafiel: model vs market
| Source | Chaves | Draw | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 21% | 60% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 32% |
| Published | 34% | 26% | 39% |
| Edge | -5% | -2% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penafiel below our published probability: +7.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.98, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +17.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Chaves vs Penafiel odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penafiel, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 2.40 | 2.34 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.26 | +0.06 |
| Penafiel | 2.80 | 2.83 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chaves and Penafiel expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.45
- Attack rating (Chaves / Penafiel)
- 1.13 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Chaves / Penafiel)
- 1.39 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chaves vs Penafiel score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chaves goals. Columns: Penafiel goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chaves vs Penafiel goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chaves vs Penafiel
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chaves | 34% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Penafiel | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chaves or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Penafiel) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win by 2+ | 39% | 2.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chaves and Penafiel recent form
Chaves
3W 1D 2L
Penafiel
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chaves at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
Penafiel away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chaves at home only, Penafiel away only.
Chaves vs Penafiel head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Chaves 4 · draws 2 · Penafiel 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Chaves | 0-1 | Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-08-30 | Penafiel | 0-2 | Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-05-15 | Penafiel | 0-0 | Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-01-04 | Chaves | 0-1 | Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| 2023-07-18 | Penafiel | 1-2 | Chaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-03-06 | Penafiel | 2-1 | Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| 2021-10-10 | Chaves | 3-1 | Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| 2021-03-29 | Chaves | 2-1 | Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| 2020-11-09 | Penafiel | 1-0 | Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| 2020-02-17 | Penafiel | 0-0 | Chaves | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- AVS vs Vizela 2026-11-06
- Felgueiras 1932 v Leixoes — match page 2026-11-07
- Academica v Amarante — match page 2026-11-07
- Feirense v Lusitânia Lourosa — match page 2026-11-08
- FC Porto B vs Portimonense — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Farense vs Benfica B 2026-11-08
- Sporting CP B vs Tondela 2026-11-08
- Torreense vs União de Leiria — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Chaves, previous: Benfica B – Chaves, 2026-10-31
- Chaves, next: Maritimo v Chaves analysis
- Penafiel, previous: Penafiel v Feirense analysis