Penafiel vs Feirense: model vs market
| Source | Penafiel | Draw | Feirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 22% | 9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 69% | 22% | 9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Penafiel and Feirense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Penafiel / Feirense)
- 1.48 / 0.53
- Defence rating (Penafiel / Feirense)
- 0.97 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Penafiel vs Feirense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Penafiel goals. Columns: Feirense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Penafiel vs Feirense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Penafiel vs Feirense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 69% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.56 | |
| Feirense | 9% | 10.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.56 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Penafiel or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Feirense) | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win by 2+ | 43% | 2.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Penafiel and Feirense recent form
Penafiel
4W 0D 2L
Feirense
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Penafiel at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Feirense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Penafiel at home only, Feirense away only.
Penafiel vs Feirense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Penafiel 0 · draws 0 · Feirense 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Feirense | 1-0 | Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-10-19 | Penafiel | 1-2 | Feirense | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Amarante vs FC Porto B — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Portimonense v Torreense — match page 2026-10-31
- Leixoes vs Sporting CP B — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Benfica B vs Chaves 2026-10-31
- União de Leiria v AVS — match page 2026-10-31
- Vizela vs Academica 2026-11-01
- Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Penafiel, previous: Farense vs Penafiel prediction
- Feirense, previous: Feirense v Benfica B analysis