Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense preview
In the match between Lusitânia Lourosa and Farense, the 1X2 probabilities show Lusitânia Lourosa at 35%, a draw at 29%, and Farense at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. The expected goals are 1.45 for Lusitânia Lourosa and 1.37 for Farense, indicating a close contest.
Both teams to score is projected at 58%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 54%. Lusitânia Lourosa's recent form shows 4 wins and 2 draws, while Farense has 4 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw in their last 6 matches. However, Lusitânia Lourosa has not won against Farense in their last 2 encounters, which could influence the outcome.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense: model vs market
| Source | Lusitânia Lourosa | Draw | Farense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Farense, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 2.47 | 2.71 | +0.24 |
| Draw | 3.12 | 3.10 | -0.02 |
| Farense | 2.77 | 2.57 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lusitânia Lourosa and Farense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Lusitânia Lourosa / Farense)
- 1.35 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Lusitânia Lourosa / Farense)
- 0.92 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lusitânia Lourosa goals. Columns: Farense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 35% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Farense | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lusitânia Lourosa or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Farense) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Farense win by 2+ | 16% | 6.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lusitânia Lourosa and Farense recent form
Lusitânia Lourosa
4W 2D 0L
Farense
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lusitânia Lourosa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Farense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lusitânia Lourosa at home only, Farense away only.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Lusitânia Lourosa 0 · draws 0 · Farense 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Farense | 2-1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-10-04 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 1-2 | Farense | Segunda Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Amarante vs FC Porto B — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Portimonense v Torreense — match page 2026-10-31
- Leixoes vs Sporting CP B — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Benfica B vs Chaves 2026-10-31
- União de Leiria v AVS — match page 2026-10-31
- Vizela vs Academica 2026-11-01
- Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Lusitânia Lourosa, previous: Felgueiras 1932 vs Lusitânia Lourosa prediction
- Farense, previous: Farense vs Penafiel prediction