Updated

Segunda Liga · Matchday 11

Tondela vs Farense

· Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela· Referee Vitor Miguel Oliveira Lopes

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Tondela to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TondelaDrawFarense

Tondela vs Farense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTondelaDrawFarense
Model46%26%28%
Market45%28%27%
Published45%28%27%
Edge0%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.27.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Tondela vs Farense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Tondela, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-10.

Opened 1.92Now 2.05 +0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Tondela1.922.05+0.13
Draw3.303.23-0.07
Farense3.693.42-0.27

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Tondela and Farense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.70Tondela
1.27Farense
Total expected goals
2.98
Attack rating (Tondela / Farense)
1.31 / 1.24
Defence rating (Tondela / Farense)
0.88 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tondela vs Farense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 5.4% 4.1% 1.8% 0.7% 1 7.6% 12.2% 7.1% 3.0% 1.3% 2 7.4% 9.4% 6.0% 2.5% 1.1% 3 4.2% 5.3% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 2.6% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Tondela goals. Columns: Farense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tondela vs Farense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tondela vs Farense

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Tondela45%2.22
Draw28%3.59
Farense27%3.70
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.75
Under 2.543%2.33
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.67
No40%2.50
Double chance1X (Tondela or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Farense)55%1.82
Handicap -1Tondela win by 2+25%3.96
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Tondela and Farense recent form

Tondela 4W 1D 1L
Farense 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Tondela at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-1
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
1.80
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Farense away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Tondela at home only, Farense away only.

Expected lineups

Tondela lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 28 Carlos
  2. 12 Zé Ricardo
  3. 23 B. Medina
  4. 4 Christian Marques
  5. 15 Carraça
  6. 37 Sarará
  7. 8 Hélder Tavares
  8. 7 Cascavel
  9. 20 Hugo Félix
  10. 26 A. van der Heide
  11. 19 Tómané

Bench: Lucas Cañizares, Bebeto, João Afonso, João Lima, H. Addo, Alves Richarllyson Carvalho, Xabi Huarte, G. Novero, B. Almeida, Tiago Dias

Farense lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Tånnander
  2. 6 Derick Poloni
  3. 5 Rodrigo Borges
  4. 37 Gonçalo Silva
  5. 78 Alex Pinto
  6. 27 Mattheus Oliveira
  7. 29 Cláudio Falcão
  8. 7 João Resende
  9. 10 S. Singh
  10. 17 André Candeias
  11. 89 João Gastão

Bench: Lucas D'Agrella, Miguel Menino, Gabriel Barbosa, J. Diazongua Nfinigui, Bruno Santos, Dário Miranda, N. Zolotić, Victor, Rafael Teixeira, F. Buntić, Edi Semedo

Tondela vs Farense head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Tondela 2 · draws 0 · Farense 3.

TondelaDrawsFarense
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-09-27Farense1-0TondelaTaça da Liga
2023-05-28Farense3-1TondelaSegunda Liga
2023-01-22Tondela1-0FarenseSegunda Liga
2021-05-15Farense1-0TondelaPrimeira Liga
2021-01-30Tondela2-0FarensePrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match