Updated

Stars League · Matchday 9

Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha

· Grand Hamad Stadium, Doha

Alin prediction Al-Arabi SC to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al-Arabi SCDrawAl Ahli Doha
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al-Arabi SC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Al-Arabi SC1.98 Draw4.32 Al Ahli Doha3.24

Price as of

Expected return at 1.98: -7.8% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha preview

In the Stars League fixture between Al-Arabi SC and Al Ahli Doha, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Arabi SC at 47%, while Al Ahli Doha stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Al-Arabi SC has an expected goals figure of 1.71, compared to Al Ahli Doha's 1.42.

Both teams to score has a probability of 63%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 61%. Recent form indicates Al-Arabi SC has 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Al Ahli Doha has 3 wins in their last 6. A draw could change the outcome, as both teams have shown inconsistency.

Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl-Arabi SCDrawAl Ahli Doha
Model44%26%31%
Market48%24%29%
Published47%24%29%
Edge-1%0%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Al-Arabi SC, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-05.

Opened 1.93Now 1.93 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Al-Arabi SC1.931.93+0.00
Draw3.883.88+0.00
Al Ahli Doha3.183.18+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Al-Arabi SC and Al Ahli Doha expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71Al-Arabi SC
1.42Al Ahli Doha
Total expected goals
3.13
Attack rating (Al-Arabi SC / Al Ahli Doha)
1.03 / 1.08
Defence rating (Al-Arabi SC / Al Ahli Doha)
0.77 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 5.1% 4.4% 2.1% 1.0% 1 6.4% 11.7% 7.5% 3.5% 1.7% 2 6.4% 9.1% 6.4% 3.0% 1.5% 3 3.7% 5.2% 3.7% 1.7% 0.8% 4+ 2.3% 3.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: Al-Arabi SC goals. Columns: Al Ahli Doha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al-Arabi SC47%2.15
Draw24%4.15
Al Ahli Doha29%3.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.65
Under 2.539%2.53
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.71
Double chance1X (Al-Arabi SC or draw)71%1.42
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Al Ahli Doha)53%1.87
Handicap -1Al-Arabi SC win by 2+24%4.24
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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Al-Arabi SC and Al Ahli Doha recent form

Al-Arabi SC 3W 2D 1L
Al Ahli Doha 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al-Arabi SC at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Al Ahli Doha away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.25
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Arabi SC at home only, Al Ahli Doha away only.

Expected lineups

Al-Arabi SC lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 31 Jasem Al Hail
  2. 2 Marwan Hassan
  3. 19 Gueye Laye
  4. 5 Simo
  5. 22 K. Bauobida
  6. 80 I. Lihadji
  7. 17 J. Veretout
  8. 8 Ahmed Fathi
  9. 6 O. Tannane
  10. 14 M. Olunga
  11. 7 Pablo Sarabia

Bench: Mohammed Al Naimi, A. Al Hussain, Mohamed Gouda, Lotfi Madjer, Salem Reda, A. Mahajna, Salem Al Hajri, Q. El Haroun, Hassan Mohamad, Y. Snana

Al Ahli Doha lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 13 Mohamed Lingliz
  2. 12 Ghanem Al Minhali
  3. 88 A. Amraoui
  4. 16 R. Tihi
  5. 41 Ahmed Reyed
  6. 33 D. Fettouhi
  7. 7 J. Draxler
  8. 6 Luiz Ceará
  9. 27 B. Bourigeaud
  10. 5 W. Troost-Ekong
  11. 10 Erik Expósito

Bench: Suhaib Gannan, Mohammed Abdulla Al-Ishaq, Jassem Mohammed, Hamad Mansour, Z. Sassi, Younis Abdelrahman, Ismaeel Mohammad

Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Al-Arabi SC 5 · draws 3 · Al Ahli Doha 2.

Al-Arabi SCDrawsAl Ahli Doha
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-13Al Ahli Doha1-1Al-Arabi SCStars League
2025-11-09Al-Arabi SC1-0Al Ahli DohaStars League
2025-02-23Al-Arabi SC4-2Al Ahli DohaStars League
2024-09-22Al Ahli Doha3-3Al-Arabi SCStars League
2024-08-30Al-Arabi SC1-0Al Ahli DohaQSL Cup
2024-03-16Al Ahli Doha1-1Al-Arabi SCStars League
2023-11-11Al-Arabi SC0-6Al Ahli DohaQSL Cup
2023-10-29Al-Arabi SC2-3Al Ahli DohaStars League
2023-04-13Al-Arabi SC4-3Al Ahli DohaStars League
2023-01-05Al Ahli Doha1-2Al-Arabi SCStars League

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Al-Arabi SC to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Al-Arabi SC
Our pick: Al-Arabi SC to win 18+ Bet Now