Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC preview
In the Stars League fixture between Al-Gharafa and Al-Duhail SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Gharafa at 15%, a draw at 21%, and Al-Duhail SC leading with 64%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.03 for Al-Gharafa and 2.23 for Al-Duhail SC.
With Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 58%, there is a strong chance for a high-scoring match. However, Al-Gharafa's recent form of W-D-D-L-D-L could hinder their performance against the consistent Al-Duhail SC, who have a recent record of W-W-W-W-D-D.
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC: model vs market
| Source | Al-Gharafa | Draw | Al-Duhail SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al-Gharafa and Al-Duhail SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (Al-Gharafa / Al-Duhail SC)
- 0.85 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Al-Gharafa / Al-Duhail SC)
- 1.01 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Gharafa goals. Columns: Al-Duhail SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Gharafa | 15% | 6.46 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.76 | |
| Al-Duhail SC | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Gharafa or draw) | 36% | 2.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Duhail SC) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Duhail SC win by 2+ | 41% | 2.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Gharafa and Al-Duhail SC recent form
Al-Gharafa
1W 3D 2L
Al-Duhail SC
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Gharafa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Al-Duhail SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Gharafa at home only, Al-Duhail SC away only.
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al-Gharafa 4 · draws 2 · Al-Duhail SC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Al-Duhail SC | 3-2 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2025-11-14 | Al-Duhail SC | 1-0 | Al-Gharafa | QSL Cup |
| 2025-10-30 | Al-Gharafa | 3-1 | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League |
| 2025-04-23 | Al-Duhail SC | 0-0 | Al-Gharafa | Qatar Cup |
| 2025-03-29 | Al-Gharafa | 0-2 | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League |
| 2024-10-27 | Al-Duhail SC | 1-1 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2024-03-01 | Al-Duhail SC | 1-4 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2023-10-14 | Al-Gharafa | 0-2 | Al-Duhail SC | QSL Cup |
| 2023-09-24 | Al-Gharafa | 3-2 | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League |
| 2023-04-14 | Al-Gharafa | 2-0 | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha 2026-11-06
- Al Wakrah vs Al Shahaniya 2026-11-06
- Al Shamal v Al-Sailiya — match page 2026-11-07
- Lusail City vs Qatar SC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Al Sadd v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Al-Gharafa, previous: Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC: odds and pick
- Al-Duhail SC, previous: Al-Duhail SC – Al Wakrah, 2026-10-31