Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC preview
In the Stars League fixture, Al-Gharafa has a 44% chance of winning against Qatar SC, who has a 32% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. The model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 64%.
Al-Gharafa's recent form shows 3 draws and 3 losses, while Qatar SC has 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are 1.48 for Al-Gharafa and 1.68 for Qatar SC. A draw at 25% is also a possibility, which could change the expected outcome.
Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC: model vs market
| Source | Al-Gharafa | Draw | Qatar SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 26% | 42% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Published | 44% | 25% | 32% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al-Gharafa and Qatar SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Al-Gharafa / Qatar SC)
- 0.79 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Al-Gharafa / Qatar SC)
- 1.10 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Gharafa goals. Columns: Qatar SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Gharafa | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Qatar SC | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Gharafa or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Qatar SC) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Gharafa win by 2+ | 16% | 6.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Gharafa and Qatar SC recent form
Al-Gharafa
0W 3D 3L
Qatar SC
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Gharafa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qatar SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Gharafa at home only, Qatar SC away only.
Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al-Gharafa 5 · draws 2 · Qatar SC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Qatar SC | 2-0 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2026-01-19 | Qatar SC | 3-2 | Al-Gharafa | QSL Cup |
| 2025-11-07 | Al-Gharafa | 2-1 | Qatar SC | Stars League |
| 2025-02-22 | Al-Gharafa | 4-2 | Qatar SC | Stars League |
| 2024-09-22 | Qatar SC | 1-3 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2024-05-19 | Qatar SC | 2-2 | Al-Gharafa | Emir Cup |
| 2023-12-20 | Al-Gharafa | 2-1 | Qatar SC | Stars League |
| 2023-08-17 | Qatar SC | 4-4 | Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| 2023-04-28 | Al-Gharafa | 0-1 | Qatar SC | Stars League |
| 2023-03-09 | Al-Gharafa | 4-1 | Qatar SC | Emir Cup |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Al Shahaniya v Al Ahli Doha — match page 2026-10-30
- Al Sadd vs Al Shamal 2026-10-30
- Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Al-Duhail SC vs Al Wakrah 2026-10-31
- Al-Arabi SC v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Al-Gharafa, previous: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha: odds and pick
- Qatar SC, previous: Al Shamal – Qatar SC, 2026-10-23