Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha preview
In the upcoming match between Al Shahaniya and Al Ahli Doha, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Shahaniya at 27%, while Al Ahli Doha is at 49%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which occurs at a rate of 9%. Al Ahli Doha's expected goals stand at 2.37, significantly higher than Al Shahaniya's 1.43.
While the model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 70%, factors such as recent form could influence the outcome. Al Shahaniya has two losses in their last three matches, while Al Ahli Doha's recent performance includes two wins and two draws. This could affect their scoring capabilities in the match.
Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha: model vs market
| Source | Al Shahaniya | Draw | Al Ahli Doha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 21% | 58% |
| Market | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| Published | 27% | 23% | 49% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 1.43.
- The market prices Al Ahli Doha below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Ahli Doha, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shahaniya | 3.20 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.77 | +0.12 |
| Al Ahli Doha | 1.95 | 1.95 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Shahaniya and Al Ahli Doha expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.80
- Attack rating (Al Shahaniya / Al Ahli Doha)
- 0.82 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Al Shahaniya / Al Ahli Doha)
- 1.28 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Shahaniya goals. Columns: Al Ahli Doha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shahaniya | 27% | 3.65 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Al Ahli Doha | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Shahaniya or draw) | 51% | 1.98 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Ahli Doha) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ahli Doha win by 2+ | 37% | 2.68 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Shahaniya and Al Ahli Doha recent form
Al Shahaniya
2W 1D 3L
Al Ahli Doha
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Shahaniya at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Ahli Doha away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Shahaniya at home only, Al Ahli Doha away only.
Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al Shahaniya 3 · draws 2 · Al Ahli Doha 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Al Ahli Doha | 0-1 | Al Shahaniya | QSL Cup |
| 2026-02-27 | Al Ahli Doha | 1-2 | Al Shahaniya | Stars League |
| 2025-09-26 | Al Shahaniya | 1-2 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| 2025-05-13 | Al Ahli Doha | 2-1 | Al Shahaniya | Emir Cup |
| 2025-04-04 | Al Shahaniya | 2-3 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| 2024-11-01 | Al Ahli Doha | 2-1 | Al Shahaniya | Stars League |
| 2024-10-11 | Al Shahaniya | 1-1 | Al Ahli Doha | QSL Cup |
| 2020-07-26 | Al Shahaniya | 3-1 | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League |
| 2019-12-01 | Al Shahaniya | 1-2 | Al Ahli Doha | QSL Cup |
| 2019-10-19 | Al Ahli Doha | 2-2 | Al Shahaniya | Stars League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Al Sadd vs Al Shamal 2026-10-30
- Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Al-Duhail SC vs Al Wakrah 2026-10-31
- Al-Arabi SC v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Al Shahaniya, previous: Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd prediction
- Al Ahli Doha, previous: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha: odds and pick