Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City preview
In the Stars League fixture between Al-Sailiya and Lusail City, the 1X2 probabilities show Lusail City at 63%, while Al-Sailiya stands at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with expected goals of 1.08 for Al-Sailiya and 2.27 for Lusail City.
The model also indicates a 65% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability for both teams to score. However, Al-Sailiya's recent form, with six consecutive matches without a win (L-D-L-L-L-L), could impact their performance negatively, making the predictions less reliable.
Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City: model vs market
| Source | Al-Sailiya | Draw | Lusail City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| Market | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Published | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lusail City below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al-Sailiya and Lusail City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (Al-Sailiya / Lusail City)
- 0.79 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Al-Sailiya / Lusail City)
- 1.70 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Sailiya goals. Columns: Lusail City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Sailiya | 25% | 4.04 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Lusail City | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Sailiya or draw) | 49% | 2.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Lusail City) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusail City win by 2+ | 41% | 2.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Sailiya and Lusail City recent form
Al-Sailiya
0W 1D 5L
Lusail City
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Sailiya at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Lusail City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Sailiya at home only, Lusail City away only.
Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Al-Sailiya 3 · draws 2 · Lusail City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-20 | Lusail City | 0-0 | Al-Sailiya | Second Division |
| 2024-10-24 | Al-Sailiya | 2-3 | Lusail City | Second Division |
| 2024-02-28 | Al-Sailiya | 1-1 | Lusail City | Second Division |
| 2023-10-31 | Lusail City | 0-1 | Al-Sailiya | Second Division |
| 2023-09-16 | Lusail City | 2-3 | Al-Sailiya | QFA Cup |
| 2021-04-21 | Lusail City | 0-1 | Al-Sailiya | QFA Cup |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Al Shahaniya v Al Ahli Doha — match page 2026-10-30
- Al Sadd vs Al Shamal 2026-10-30
- Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Al-Duhail SC vs Al Wakrah 2026-10-31
- Al-Arabi SC v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Al-Sailiya, previous: Al-Sailiya – Al-Rayyan SC, 2026-10-23
- Lusail City, previous: Al-Duhail SC vs Lusail City prediction