Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC preview
In the Stars League fixture between Al-Arabi SC and Al-Rayyan SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Arabi SC at 19% and Al-Rayyan SC at 58%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which occurs at a 10% probability. Al-Rayyan SC's recent form includes 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw, while Al-Arabi SC has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches.
Our model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 56%. Al-Arabi SC has expected goals of 1.03, while Al-Rayyan SC has 1.94. If Al-Arabi SC can improve their scoring, they might challenge Al-Rayyan SC's strong form, but their low probability of winning remains a significant factor.
Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC: model vs market
| Source | Al-Arabi SC | Draw | Al-Rayyan SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 24% | 58% |
| Market | 29% | 24% | 48% |
| Published | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Al-Rayyan SC below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al-Arabi SC and Al-Rayyan SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Al-Arabi SC / Al-Rayyan SC)
- 1.12 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Al-Arabi SC / Al-Rayyan SC)
- 0.85 / 0.55
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Arabi SC goals. Columns: Al-Rayyan SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Arabi SC | 26% | 3.81 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Al-Rayyan SC | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Arabi SC or draw) | 50% | 2.00 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Rayyan SC) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Rayyan SC win by 2+ | 35% | 2.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al-Arabi SC and Al-Rayyan SC recent form
Al-Arabi SC
3W 2D 1L
Al-Rayyan SC
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Arabi SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Rayyan SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Arabi SC at home only, Al-Rayyan SC away only.
Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al-Arabi SC 3 · draws 2 · Al-Rayyan SC 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Al-Rayyan SC | 4-0 | Al-Arabi SC | Stars League |
| 2025-12-28 | Al-Arabi SC | 2-2 | Al-Rayyan SC | Stars League |
| 2025-02-27 | Al-Rayyan SC | 2-1 | Al-Arabi SC | Stars League |
| 2024-09-26 | Al-Arabi SC | 2-1 | Al-Rayyan SC | Stars League |
| 2024-09-07 | Al-Rayyan SC | 3-0 | Al-Arabi SC | QSL Cup |
| 2024-03-01 | Al-Arabi SC | 2-3 | Al-Rayyan SC | Stars League |
| 2023-09-23 | Al-Rayyan SC | 1-0 | Al-Arabi SC | Stars League |
| 2023-02-04 | Al-Rayyan SC | 0-3 | Al-Arabi SC | Stars League |
| 2022-10-15 | Al-Rayyan SC | 1-1 | Al-Arabi SC | QSL Cup |
| 2022-08-11 | Al-Arabi SC | 2-1 | Al-Rayyan SC | Stars League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Al Shahaniya v Al Ahli Doha — match page 2026-10-30
- Al Sadd vs Al Shamal 2026-10-30
- Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Al-Duhail SC vs Al Wakrah 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Al-Arabi SC, previous: Al Wakrah v Al-Arabi SC analysis
- Al-Rayyan SC, previous: Al-Sailiya – Al-Rayyan SC, 2026-10-23