Al Sadd vs Al Shamal preview
In the upcoming match between Al Sadd and Al Shamal, Al Sadd has a strong 64% chance to win compared to Al Shamal's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, with an expected goals tally of 3.07 for Al Sadd and 1.60 for Al Shamal. The high probability of Over 2.5 goals at 84% suggests an attacking game, while both teams to score is estimated at 77%.
However, Al Sadd's recent form shows some inconsistency with two losses in their last six matches. Al Shamal has also struggled, with only one win in their last six games. If Al Shamal can improve their performance, they might challenge Al Sadd's dominance, which has seen them win 7 of the last 9 encounters.
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal: model vs market
| Source | Al Sadd | Draw | Al Shamal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 16% | 17% |
| Market | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Published | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.07 vs 1.60.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Sadd, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Sadd | 1.44 | 1.44 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.00 |
| Al Shamal | 5.12 | 5.00 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Sadd and Al Shamal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.67
- Attack rating (Al Sadd / Al Shamal)
- 1.71 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Al Sadd / Al Shamal)
- 1.04 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Sadd goals. Columns: Al Shamal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Sadd vs Al Shamal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Sadd | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.44 | |
| Al Shamal | 18% | 5.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84% | 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 16% | 6.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.31 |
| No | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Sadd or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Shamal) | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Sadd win by 2+ | 48% | 2.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Sadd and Al Shamal recent form
Al Sadd
4W 0D 2L
Al Shamal
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Sadd at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.9 goals per match.
- They average 5.3 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Al Shamal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Sadd at home only, Al Shamal away only.
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Al Sadd 7 · draws 0 · Al Shamal 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Al Shamal | 4-6 | Al Sadd | Emir Cup |
| 2026-04-27 | Al Sadd | 3-2 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2025-12-29 | Al Shamal | 0-3 | Al Sadd | Stars League |
| 2025-01-12 | Al Sadd | 1-0 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2024-08-10 | Al Shamal | 2-1 | Al Sadd | Stars League |
| 2024-04-24 | Al Shamal | 0-4 | Al Sadd | Stars League |
| 2023-12-01 | Al Sadd | 4-0 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2023-03-17 | Al Shamal | 1-3 | Al Sadd | Stars League |
| 2022-09-06 | Al Sadd | 1-2 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Al Shahaniya v Al Ahli Doha — match page 2026-10-30
- Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Al-Duhail SC vs Al Wakrah 2026-10-31
- Al-Arabi SC v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Al Sadd, previous: Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd prediction
- Al Shamal, previous: Al Shamal – Qatar SC, 2026-10-23