Lusail City vs Qatar SC preview
Lusail City faces Qatar SC with a 1X2 probability of 47% for Lusail City, 28% for a draw, and 25% for Qatar SC. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 10% of the time. Lusail City has an expected goals figure of 1.54, while Qatar SC sits at 1.08.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating a reasonable chance for both sides to find the net. However, Qatar SC's recent form shows a struggle with 1 win in their last 6 matches, which could affect their performance. Lusail City's form is slightly better, but their inconsistency with 2 draws in the last 5 games may also play a role in the outcome.
Lusail City vs Qatar SC: model vs market
| Source | Lusail City | Draw | Qatar SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Published | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lusail City vs Qatar SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lusail City, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lusail City | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Qatar SC | 2.62 | 2.62 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lusail City and Qatar SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Lusail City / Qatar SC)
- 0.82 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Lusail City / Qatar SC)
- 0.80 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lusail City vs Qatar SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lusail City goals. Columns: Qatar SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lusail City vs Qatar SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lusail City vs Qatar SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusail City | 41% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Qatar SC | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lusail City or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Qatar SC) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusail City win by 2+ | 24% | 4.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lusail City and Qatar SC recent form
Lusail City
2W 2D 2L
Qatar SC
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lusail City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Qatar SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lusail City at home only, Qatar SC away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha 2026-11-06
- Al Wakrah vs Al Shahaniya 2026-11-06
- Al Shamal v Al-Sailiya — match page 2026-11-07
- Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Al Sadd v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Lusail City, previous: Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City prediction
- Qatar SC, previous: Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC: odds and pick