Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya preview
In the Stars League fixture between Al Shamal and Al-Sailiya, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Shamal at 55% to win, while Al-Sailiya sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.42 for Al Shamal and 1.62 for Al-Sailiya.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Al Shamal recording L-L-D-L-D-W and Al-Sailiya on a run of L-L-D-L-L-L. Despite Al Shamal's better form, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. The high probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 74% suggest a potentially open match, but if Al-Sailiya can improve their performance, it could change the dynamics.
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya: model vs market
| Source | Al Shamal | Draw | Al-Sailiya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 21% | 25% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Published | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.62.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Shamal, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shamal | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.00 |
| Al-Sailiya | 5.90 | 6.00 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Shamal and Al-Sailiya expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.04
- Attack rating (Al Shamal / Al-Sailiya)
- 0.86 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Al Shamal / Al-Sailiya)
- 1.21 / 1.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Shamal goals. Columns: Al-Sailiya goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shamal | 62% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.00 | |
| Al-Sailiya | 18% | 5.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.36 |
| No | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Shamal or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Sailiya) | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Shamal win by 2+ | 35% | 2.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Shamal and Al-Sailiya recent form
Al Shamal
1W 2D 3L
Al-Sailiya
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Shamal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Sailiya away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 3.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Shamal at home only, Al-Sailiya away only.
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Al Shamal 2 · draws 2 · Al-Sailiya 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Al Shamal | 0-0 | Al-Sailiya | Stars League |
| 2025-08-30 | Al-Sailiya | 1-2 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2023-02-05 | Al Shamal | 0-5 | Al-Sailiya | Stars League |
| 2022-08-10 | Al-Sailiya | 2-1 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2022-04-13 | Al Shamal | 2-3 | Al-Sailiya | QFA Cup |
| 2022-01-07 | Al-Sailiya | 0-2 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2021-09-16 | Al Shamal | 2-3 | Al-Sailiya | Stars League |
| 2021-04-29 | Al-Sailiya | 4-2 | Al Shamal | QFA Cup |
| 2015-03-06 | Al-Sailiya | 2-1 | Al Shamal | Stars League |
| 2014-10-18 | Al Shamal | 2-2 | Al-Sailiya | Stars League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha 2026-11-06
- Al Wakrah vs Al Shahaniya 2026-11-06
- Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Lusail City vs Qatar SC — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Al Sadd v Al-Rayyan SC — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Al Shamal, previous: Al Sadd v Al Shamal analysis
- Al-Sailiya, previous: Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City prediction