Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani preview
In the Liga I fixture between Universitatea Craiova and FC Botosani, the 1X2 probabilities show Universitatea Craiova at 68% to win, while FC Botosani sits at 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, which aligns with expected goals of 2.35 for Universitatea Craiova and just 0.62 for FC Botosani.
Despite Craiova's strong recent form of W-W-D-W-W-W, factors like FC Botosani's potential to improve from their recent L-L-W-L-D-W streak could impact the match. Additionally, while there's a 57% chance of Over 2.5 goals, the 43% for both teams to score indicates that Botosani might struggle to find the net.
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani: model vs market
| Source | Universitatea Craiova | Draw | FC Botosani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 17% | 7% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Published | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Universitatea Craiova below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Universitatea Craiova, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova | 1.45 | 1.41 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.33 | +0.13 |
| FC Botosani | 6.85 | 7.10 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Universitatea Craiova and FC Botosani expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Universitatea Craiova / FC Botosani)
- 1.38 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Universitatea Craiova / FC Botosani)
- 0.58 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Universitatea Craiova goals. Columns: FC Botosani goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitatea Craiova | 68% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.91 | |
| FC Botosani | 12% | 8.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.35 |
| No | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Universitatea Craiova or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Botosani) | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitatea Craiova win by 2+ | 53% | 1.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Universitatea Craiova and FC Botosani recent form
Universitatea Craiova
5W 1D 0L
FC Botosani
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Universitatea Craiova at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-1
- Win rate
- 86%
- Goals for / match
- 3.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.29
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Botosani away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Universitatea Craiova at home only, FC Botosani away only.
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Universitatea Craiova 1 · draws 1 · FC Botosani 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Universitatea Craiova | 2-0 | FC Botosani | Liga I |
| 2025-08-31 | FC Botosani | 1-1 | Universitatea Craiova | Liga I |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Universitatea Craiova, previous: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova: odds and pick
- Universitatea Craiova, next: Universitatea Craiova vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë prediction
- FC Botosani, previous: FC Botosani v Petrolul Ploiesti analysis