Updated

Liga I · Matchday 14

Dinamo Bucuresti vs Uta Arad

· Arena Nationala, Bucharest

Alin prediction Dinamo Bucuresti to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Dinamo BucurestiDrawUta Arad
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.72.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Dinamo Bucuresti vs Uta Arad preview

In the Liga I fixture between Dinamo Bucuresti and Uta Arad, the 1X2 probabilities show Dinamo Bucuresti at 66% to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 13%. Uta Arad has a lower probability of 12% to win, which suggests a strong advantage for Dinamo Bucuresti. However, Uta Arad’s recent form includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge the expected outcome.

The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 45%. Dinamo Bucuresti has expected goals of 1.98, while Uta Arad sits at 0.72. If Uta Arad can improve their attacking performance, it could lead to a different result than anticipated.

Dinamo Bucuresti vs Uta Arad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDinamo BucurestiDrawUta Arad
Model66%22%12%
Market———
Published66%22%12%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.72.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Dinamo Bucuresti and Uta Arad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.96Dinamo Bucuresti
0.72Uta Arad
Total expected goals
2.69
Attack rating (Dinamo Bucuresti / Uta Arad)
1.51 / 0.98
Defence rating (Dinamo Bucuresti / Uta Arad)
0.68 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dinamo Bucuresti vs Uta Arad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.8% 4.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1 12.4% 10.6% 3.5% 0.8% 0.2% 2 13.1% 9.5% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 3 8.6% 6.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 6.6% 4.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Dinamo Bucuresti goals. Columns: Uta Arad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dinamo Bucuresti vs Uta Arad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dinamo Bucuresti vs Uta Arad

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Dinamo Bucuresti66%1.52
Draw22%4.46
Uta Arad12%8.42
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%1.99
Under 2.550%2.01
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.21
No55%1.82
Double chance1X (Dinamo Bucuresti or draw)88%1.13
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Uta Arad)34%2.91
Handicap -1Dinamo Bucuresti win by 2+41%2.42
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Dinamo Bucuresti and Uta Arad recent form

Dinamo Bucuresti 5W 1D 0L
Uta Arad 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dinamo Bucuresti at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.17
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
3 of 6
  • They have won 9 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Uta Arad away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-5
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
  • 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Dinamo Bucuresti at home only, Uta Arad away only.

Dinamo Bucuresti vs Uta Arad head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Dinamo Bucuresti 0 · draws 1 · Uta Arad 1.

Dinamo BucurestiDrawsUta Arad
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-20Uta Arad2-0Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
2025-08-15Dinamo Bucuresti1-1Uta AradLiga I

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Dinamo Bucuresti to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Dinamo Bucuresti