Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe preview
In the Liga I fixture between Oţelul and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, Oţelul has a 42% chance to win, while Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 12%. Oţelul's expected goals stand at 1.51, compared to Sepsi's 0.93, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Oţelul.
However, the match could deviate from these predictions. Both teams to score has a probability of 48%, suggesting a chance for Sepsi to find the net. Additionally, Oţelul's recent form shows six games without a win, which could impact their performance. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe: model vs market
| Source | Oţelul | Draw | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 28% | 22% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 28% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.93.
- The market prices Oţelul below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Oţelul, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oţelul | 2.34 | 2.32 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 3.07 | 3.05 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Oţelul and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.44
- Attack rating (Oţelul / Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe)
- 1.04 / 0.67
- Defence rating (Oţelul / Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe)
- 1.29 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Oţelul goals. Columns: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oţelul | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Oţelul or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Oţelul win by 2+ | 26% | 3.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Oţelul and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe recent form
Oţelul
0W 1D 5L
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Oţelul at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Oţelul at home only, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away only.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Rapid vs Csikszereda 2026-10-30
- Corvinul Hunedoara vs Arges Pitesti — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Petrolul Ploiesti v CFR 1907 Cluj — match page 2026-10-31
- Universitatea Craiova v FC Botosani — match page 2026-11-01
- Dinamo Bucuresti vs Uta Arad — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- FC Voluntari vs Farul Constanta 2026-11-02
- Universitatea Cluj vs FCSB — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Oţelul, previous: Farul Constanta – Oţelul, 2026-10-25
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, previous: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova: odds and pick