Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti preview
In the Liga I match between Uta Arad and Petrolul Ploiesti, Uta Arad has a 51% chance to win, while Petrolul Ploiesti sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% probability. Uta Arad's expected goals are 1.42 compared to Petrolul Ploiesti's 1.13, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
However, both teams to score stands at 53%, suggesting that Petrolul Ploiesti could find the net. Uta Arad's recent form shows mixed results with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Petrolul Ploiesti has drawn 3 of their last 6. This could impact the final outcome, making it less predictable.
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti: model vs market
| Source | Uta Arad | Draw | Petrolul Ploiesti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 24% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Uta Arad, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uta Arad | 2.01 | 1.74 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.75 | +0.35 |
| Petrolul Ploiesti | 3.71 | 4.20 | +0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Uta Arad and Petrolul Ploiesti expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Uta Arad / Petrolul Ploiesti)
- 0.89 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Uta Arad / Petrolul Ploiesti)
- 0.94 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Uta Arad goals. Columns: Petrolul Ploiesti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Uta Arad | 51% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Petrolul Ploiesti | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Uta Arad or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Petrolul Ploiesti) | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Uta Arad win by 2+ | 21% | 4.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Uta Arad and Petrolul Ploiesti recent form
Uta Arad
3W 0D 3L
Petrolul Ploiesti
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Uta Arad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Petrolul Ploiesti away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Uta Arad at home only, Petrolul Ploiesti away only.
Expected lineups
Uta Arad lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Márcio Rosa
- 3 Din Alomerovic
- 4 Alexandru Benga
- 60 Dmytro Pospelov
- 15 Peter Ouaneh
- 8 Roman Alin
- 5 Sota Mino
- 42 Omar El Sawy
- 77 Jayson Papeau
- 11 Hakim Abdallah
- 9 Marius Coman
Bench: Andrei Dorobanțu, Antoni Ivanov, Ismet Sinani, Marinos Tzionis, Ionuț Picioruș, Denis Țăroi, Robert Bădescu, Andrei Gorcea, Andrea Padula
Petrolul Ploiesti lineup · 4-4-2
- 38 Lukáš Zima
- 2 Andres Dumitrescu
- 71 Breston Malula
- 4 Paul Papp
- 66 Tiberiu Căpuşă
- 7 Rodrigo Martins
- 80 Mario Ioniță
- 20 Sergiu Hanca
- 19 Léo Teixeira
- 8 Lucho Vega
- 9 Dan N'Lundulu
Bench: Ștefan Rădulescu, Ștefan Georgescu, Calal Huseinov, David Paraschiv, Mark Țuțu, Adam Zaian, Liviu Argeșanu, Kilian Ludewig, Rareș Leescu, Rareș Manolache, Dele Israel
Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Uta Arad 6 · draws 4 · Petrolul Ploiesti 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 1-1 | Uta Arad | Liga I |
| 2025-12-08 | Uta Arad | 1-0 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I |
| 2025-10-30 | Uta Arad | 1-1 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Cupa României |
| 2025-08-01 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 1-2 | Uta Arad | Liga I |
| 2025-05-05 | Uta Arad | 2-0 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I |
| 2025-02-15 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 0-1 | Uta Arad | Liga I |
| 2024-10-04 | Uta Arad | 3-1 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I |
| 2024-04-22 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 1-1 | Uta Arad | Liga I |
| 2024-02-24 | Uta Arad | 1-0 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I |
| 2023-10-07 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 0-0 | Uta Arad | Liga I |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Csikszereda v Universitatea Cluj — match page 2026-11-07
- Farul Constanta vs Rapid 2026-11-07
- FCSB vs Corvinul Hunedoara 2026-11-07
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs FC Voluntari 2026-11-08
- CFR 1907 Cluj v Universitatea Craiova — match page 2026-11-08
- FC Botosani vs Oţelul — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Uta Arad, previous: Dinamo Bucuresti – Uta Arad, 2026-11-01
- Petrolul Ploiesti, previous: Petrolul Ploiesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj: odds and pick