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Liga I · Matchday 15

CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova

Alin prediction Universitatea Craiova to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 2

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CFR 1907 ClujDrawUniversitatea Craiova
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.73.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
CFR 1907 Cluj5.00 Draw4.10 Universitatea Craiova1.67

Price as of

Expected return at 1.67: -0.6% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova preview

CFR 1907 Cluj faces Universitatea Craiova with a 19% chance of winning compared to 57% for Craiova. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which occurs with a 12% probability. Cluj's expected goals are 0.80, while Craiova's are 2.02, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the visitors.

CFR 1907 Cluj's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Universitatea Craiova has won 5 of their last 6. Both teams to score has a 49% chance, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. If Cluj can improve their scoring or if Craiova has an off day, the outcome might differ from expectations.

CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCFR 1907 ClujDrawUniversitatea Craiova
Model12%22%66%
Market19%23%57%
Published17%23%60%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 0.73.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Universitatea Craiova below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Universitatea Craiova, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 2.01Now 1.60 -0.40
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
CFR 1907 Cluj3.434.80+1.37
Draw3.703.92+0.22
Universitatea Craiova2.011.60-0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

CFR 1907 Cluj and Universitatea Craiova expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.73CFR 1907 Cluj
1.99Universitatea Craiova
Total expected goals
2.73
Attack rating (CFR 1907 Cluj / Universitatea Craiova)
0.94 / 1.60
Defence rating (CFR 1907 Cluj / Universitatea Craiova)
1.16 / 0.52

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 12.1% 13.0% 8.6% 6.8% 1 3.8% 10.5% 9.5% 6.3% 5.0% 2 1.8% 3.5% 3.5% 2.3% 1.8% 3 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: CFR 1907 Cluj goals. Columns: Universitatea Craiova goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2CFR 1907 Cluj17%5.76
Draw23%4.32
Universitatea Craiova60%1.68
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.95
Under 2.549%2.05
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.18
No54%1.85
Double chance1X (CFR 1907 Cluj or draw)40%2.47
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Universitatea Craiova)83%1.21
Handicap -1Universitatea Craiova win by 2+42%2.39
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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CFR 1907 Cluj and Universitatea Craiova recent form

CFR 1907 Cluj 2W 2D 2L
Universitatea Craiova 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

CFR 1907 Cluj at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
3 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Universitatea Craiova away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.17
Clean sheets
3 of 6
  • They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: CFR 1907 Cluj at home only, Universitatea Craiova away only.

CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: CFR 1907 Cluj 0 · draws 2 · Universitatea Craiova 2.

CFR 1907 ClujDrawsUniversitatea Craiova
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-08CFR 1907 Cluj0-0Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
2026-04-06Universitatea Craiova2-0CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
2025-12-07Universitatea Craiova1-1CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
2025-08-03CFR 1907 Cluj2-3Universitatea CraiovaLiga I

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Universitatea Craiova to win Predicted score 0 – 2 C Bet on Universitatea Craiova
Our pick: Universitatea Craiova to win 18+ Bet Now