Al Diriyah vs NEOM preview
In the match between Al Diriyah and NEOM, the 1X2 probabilities show a 30% chance for Al Diriyah to win, while NEOM also has a 35% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 18%. Both teams to score has a 37% probability, indicating that scoring may be a challenge for both sides.
Al Diriyah's expected goals stand at 0.85, while NEOM's is slightly higher at 0.95. With a confidence grade of C, this suggests uncertainty in the outcome. The low chances for Over 2.5 goals at 27% also support the idea that this match may not see many goals. Performance trends show Al Diriyah with a mixed recent form, while NEOM has won 3 of their last 5 matches.
Al Diriyah vs NEOM: model vs market
| Source | Al Diriyah | Draw | NEOM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 35% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 26% | 35% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al Diriyah and NEOM expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.81
- Attack rating (Al Diriyah / NEOM)
- 0.66 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Al Diriyah / NEOM)
- 0.81 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Diriyah vs NEOM score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Diriyah goals. Columns: NEOM goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Diriyah vs NEOM goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Diriyah vs NEOM
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Diriyah | 26% | 3.91 |
| Draw | 35% | 2.85 | |
| NEOM | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27% | 3.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.78 |
| No | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Diriyah or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| X2 (draw or NEOM) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | NEOM win by 2+ | 16% | 6.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al Diriyah and NEOM recent form
Al Diriyah
2W 2D 2L
NEOM
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Diriyah at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NEOM away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Diriyah at home only, NEOM away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm — match page 2026-10-29
- Al-Nassr v Al Kholood — match page 2026-10-29
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Abha v Al-Ittihad FC — match page 2026-10-30
- Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — team news & stats 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Al Diriyah, previous: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah prediction
- NEOM, previous: NEOM vs Abha prediction