Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture between Al-Nassr and Al Kholood, the 1X2 probabilities show Al-Nassr at 73%, while Al Kholood sits at 10%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-0, which aligns with expected goals of 2.47 for Al-Nassr and just 0.83 for Al Kholood.
However, recent form indicates that Al Kholood has won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Al-Nassr has had a mixed performance with 3 wins in their last 5. The model suggests a 64% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score, but if Al Kholood improves their scoring, those predictions could be challenged.
Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood: model vs market
| Source | Al-Nassr | Draw | Al Kholood |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al-Nassr and Al Kholood expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Al-Nassr / Al Kholood)
- 1.38 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Al-Nassr / Al Kholood)
- 0.70 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al-Nassr goals. Columns: Al Kholood goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Nassr | 74% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.04 | |
| Al Kholood | 9% | 10.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al-Nassr or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Kholood) | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Nassr win by 2+ | 53% | 1.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al-Nassr and Al Kholood recent form
Al-Nassr
4W 1D 1L
Al Kholood
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al-Nassr at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Kholood away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have converted 0 of 3 penalties (0%).
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al-Nassr at home only, Al Kholood away only.
Al-Nassr vs Al Kholood head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al-Nassr 2 · draws 0 · Al Kholood 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Al Kholood | 0-3 | Al-Nassr | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-09-14 | Al-Nassr | 2-0 | Al Kholood | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm — match page 2026-10-29
- Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Abha v Al-Ittihad FC — match page 2026-10-30
- Al Diriyah vs NEOM 2026-10-30
- Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — team news & stats 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Al-Nassr, previous: Al-Faisaly FC – Al-Nassr, 2026-10-23
- Al-Nassr, next: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr: odds and pick
- Al Kholood, previous: Al Kholood v Al-Ettifaq analysis
- Al Kholood, next: Abha v Al Kholood analysis