Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC preview
In the upcoming fixture between Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Riyadh at 9%, a draw at 17%, and Al-Qadisiyah FC at 74%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 12% chance. Al-Qadisiyah FC's strong recent form, with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, supports their favored status.
While Al-Qadisiyah FC is expected to dominate, there is a 49% chance that both teams will score, which could lead to a different match outcome. Al Riyadh's expected goals stand at 0.75, indicating they may struggle to find the net. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC: model vs market
| Source | Al Riyadh | Draw | Al-Qadisiyah FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 19% | 68% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 12% | 19% | 68% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Al Riyadh / Al-Qadisiyah FC)
- 0.72 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Al Riyadh / Al-Qadisiyah FC)
- 1.09 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Riyadh goals. Columns: Al-Qadisiyah FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Riyadh | 12% | 8.16 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.15 | |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Riyadh or draw) | 32% | 3.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC win by 2+ | 46% | 2.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Al Riyadh and Al-Qadisiyah FC recent form
Al Riyadh
2W 2D 2L
Al-Qadisiyah FC
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Riyadh at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Al-Qadisiyah FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Riyadh at home only, Al-Qadisiyah FC away only.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Al Riyadh 0 · draws 0 · Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Al Riyadh | 0-4 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2026-01-04 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 4-0 | Al Riyadh | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Al Khaleej Saihat v Al-Hazm — match page 2026-10-29
- Al-Nassr v Al Kholood — match page 2026-10-29
- Abha v Al-Ittihad FC — match page 2026-10-30
- Al Diriyah vs NEOM 2026-10-30
- Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — team news & stats 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Al Riyadh, previous: Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon: odds and pick
- Al Riyadh, next: Al Riyadh vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC prediction
- Al-Qadisiyah FC, previous: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC: odds and pick