Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon preview
In the Saudi Arabia Pro League fixture between Al Riyadh and Al Taawon, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Riyadh at 33%, a draw at 28%, and Al Taawon leading at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance. Al Riyadh's expected goals sit at 1.27, while Al Taawon has a lower figure of 0.80, indicating a potential edge for the visitors.
Both teams to score has a 41% likelihood, while Over 2.5 goals is at 34%. Recent form shows Al Riyadh with mixed results, including 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Al Taawon has struggled with 1 draw and 4 losses. These factors could influence the outcome, but the confidence grade remains at C, suggesting uncertainty.
Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon: model vs market
| Source | Al Riyadh | Draw | Al Taawon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 32% | 22% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Published | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Edge | +4% | +1% | -5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Al Taawon, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Riyadh | 3.25 | 3.10 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.45 | -0.05 |
| Al Taawon | 2.06 | 2.15 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Al Riyadh and Al Taawon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.07
- Attack rating (Al Riyadh / Al Taawon)
- 0.72 / 0.51
- Defence rating (Al Riyadh / Al Taawon)
- 1.10 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Al Riyadh goals. Columns: Al Taawon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Riyadh | 34% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Al Taawon | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.44 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Al Riyadh or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Al Taawon) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Taawon win by 2+ | 7% | 13.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Al Riyadh and Al Taawon recent form
Al Riyadh
2W 2D 2L
Al Taawon
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Al Riyadh at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Al Taawon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Al Riyadh at home only, Al Taawon away only.
Al Riyadh vs Al Taawon head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Al Riyadh 2 · draws 2 · Al Taawon 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Al Taawon | 1-1 | Al Riyadh | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2026-01-18 | Al Riyadh | 1-3 | Al Taawon | Saudi Arabia Pro League |
| 2025-05-20 | Al Taawon | 3-2 | Al Riyadh | Pro League |
| 2025-01-21 | Al Riyadh | 1-0 | Al Taawon | Pro League |
| 2024-05-09 | Al Riyadh | 0-0 | Al Taawon | Pro League |
| 2023-11-24 | Al Taawon | 1-2 | Al Riyadh | Pro League |
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Before and after this match
- Al Riyadh, previous: Al Diriyah vs Al Riyadh: odds and pick
- Al Riyadh, next: Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC prediction
- Al Taawon, previous: Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FC analysis