Updated

Slovakia Super Liga · Matchday 14

Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava

· Referee J. Sucka

Alin prediction Spartak Trnava to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Dukla Banská BystricaDrawSpartak Trnava
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.15.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Spartak Trnava is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Dukla Banská Bystrica4.25 Draw3.88 Spartak Trnava1.87

Price as of

Expected return at 1.87: -2.3% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava preview

In the Slovakia Super Liga, Dukla Banská Bystrica faces Spartak Trnava with a 48% chance for Spartak to win compared to 26% for Dukla. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with expected goals of 1.26 for Dukla and 1.76 for Spartak. The model also suggests a 58% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood for both teams to score.

Dukla's recent form shows a mix of results, with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Spartak has drawn 3 of their last 6. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors like unexpected player performances or tactical changes could influence the outcome and challenge these predictions.

Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDukla Banská BystricaDrawSpartak Trnava
Model24%26%51%
Market22%25%53%
Published23%25%52%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.15.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Spartak Trnava, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.80Now 1.75 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Dukla Banská Bystrica3.904.15+0.25
Draw3.703.69-0.01
Spartak Trnava1.801.75-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Dukla Banská Bystrica and Spartak Trnava expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.15Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.77Spartak Trnava
Total expected goals
2.92
Attack rating (Dukla Banská Bystrica / Spartak Trnava)
0.78 / 1.14
Defence rating (Dukla Banská Bystrica / Spartak Trnava)
1.11 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 8.4% 8.4% 5.0% 3.3% 1 5.1% 12.1% 9.7% 5.7% 3.8% 2 3.6% 6.3% 5.6% 3.3% 2.2% 3 1.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0.8% 4+ 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Dukla Banská Bystrica goals. Columns: Spartak Trnava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Dukla Banská Bystrica23%4.43
Draw25%3.98
Spartak Trnava52%1.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.27
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.73
No42%2.37
Double chance1X (Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw)48%2.09
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Spartak Trnava)77%1.29
Handicap -1Spartak Trnava win by 2+29%3.49
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Dukla Banská Bystrica and Spartak Trnava recent form

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3W 1D 2L
Spartak Trnava 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-3
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.

Spartak Trnava away

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.17
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Dukla Banská Bystrica at home only, Spartak Trnava away only.

Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Dukla Banská Bystrica 3 · draws 0 · Spartak Trnava 7.

Dukla Banská BystricaDrawsSpartak Trnava
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-08Spartak Trnava3-0Dukla Banská BystricaSlovakia Super Liga
2025-02-08Dukla Banská Bystrica1-4Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
2024-09-22Spartak Trnava1-0Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
2024-02-24Spartak Trnava2-0Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
2023-10-08Dukla Banská Bystrica1-2Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
2023-05-06Spartak Trnava0-1Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
2023-04-08Dukla Banská Bystrica2-0Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
2022-10-08Dukla Banská Bystrica0-2Spartak TrnavaSuper Liga
2022-07-24Spartak Trnava1-2Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
2021-06-22Spartak Trnava4-0Dukla Banská BystricaFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Spartak Trnava to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Spartak Trnava
Our pick: Spartak Trnava to win 18+ Bet Now