Skalica vs AS Trencin preview
In the Slovakia Super Liga fixture on 2026-10-17, Skalica has a 48% probability to win against AS Trencin, who sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, which aligns with a strong 63% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score.
However, Skalica's recent form shows they have not won in their last 5 matches, while AS Trencin has lost 4 of their last 5. This inconsistency could affect the expected outcome. The expected goals are 1.85 for Skalica and 1.37 for AS Trencin, suggesting a competitive match where anything can happen.
Skalica vs AS Trencin: model vs market
| Source | Skalica | Draw | AS Trencin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Published | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.38.
- The market prices Skalica below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Skalica vs AS Trencin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Skalica, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skalica | 2.17 | 2.13 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.58 | -0.02 |
| AS Trencin | 2.90 | 2.92 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Skalica and AS Trencin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Skalica / AS Trencin)
- 0.87 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Skalica / AS Trencin)
- 1.17 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Skalica vs AS Trencin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Skalica goals. Columns: AS Trencin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Skalica vs AS Trencin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Skalica vs AS Trencin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Skalica | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| AS Trencin | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Skalica or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or AS Trencin) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Skalica win by 2+ | 27% | 3.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Skalica and AS Trencin recent form
Skalica
0W 2D 4L
AS Trencin
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Skalica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
AS Trencin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Skalica at home only, AS Trencin away only.
Skalica vs AS Trencin head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Skalica 3 · draws 2 · AS Trencin 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Skalica | 4-1 | AS Trencin | Slovakia Super Liga |
| 2026-03-15 | AS Trencin | 2-1 | Skalica | Slovakia Super Liga |
| 2026-02-28 | Skalica | 0-1 | AS Trencin | Slovakia Super Liga |
| 2025-10-18 | AS Trencin | 1-1 | Skalica | Slovakia Super Liga |
| 2025-05-17 | AS Trencin | 2-0 | Skalica | Super Liga |
| 2025-03-15 | Skalica | 1-0 | AS Trencin | Super Liga |
| 2025-03-01 | Skalica | 0-0 | AS Trencin | Super Liga |
| 2024-10-19 | AS Trencin | 2-1 | Skalica | Super Liga |
| 2024-04-27 | Skalica | 0-4 | AS Trencin | Super Liga |
| 2024-03-16 | AS Trencin | 1-3 | Skalica | Super Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Komárno vs Ružomberok 2026-10-17
- Spartak Trnava vs Slovan Bratislava — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Zemplín Michalovce vs FK Košice 2026-10-18
- Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Podbrezová — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Žilina v Dunajska Streda — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Skalica, previous: Slovan Bratislava vs Skalica prediction
- AS Trencin, previous: AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica: odds and pick