Skalica vs Spartak Trnava preview
In the Slovakia Super Liga, Skalica faces Spartak Trnava with 21% chances for Skalica to win, 24% for a draw, and 55% for Spartak Trnava. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with 10% probability. Spartak Trnava has an expected goals figure of 2.02 compared to Skalica's 1.11, suggesting a strong attacking performance from the visitors.
Both teams to score stands at 59%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 60%. Skalica's recent form shows 5 matches without a win (L-D-L-L-D-L), while Spartak Trnava has 2 wins in their last 5 (L-W-D-W-D-L). The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Skalica vs Spartak Trnava: model vs market
| Source | Skalica | Draw | Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 23% | 57% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Published | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Spartak Trnava below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Skalica vs Spartak Trnava odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Spartak Trnava, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skalica | 4.25 | 4.24 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.78 | +0.00 |
| Spartak Trnava | 1.73 | 1.72 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Skalica and Spartak Trnava expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.12
- Attack rating (Skalica / Spartak Trnava)
- 0.76 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Skalica / Spartak Trnava)
- 1.20 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Skalica vs Spartak Trnava score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Skalica goals. Columns: Spartak Trnava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Skalica vs Spartak Trnava goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Skalica vs Spartak Trnava
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Skalica | 21% | 4.72 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Spartak Trnava | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Skalica or draw) | 45% | 2.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Spartak Trnava) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Spartak Trnava win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Skalica and Spartak Trnava recent form
Skalica
0W 2D 4L
Spartak Trnava
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Skalica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Spartak Trnava away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Skalica at home only, Spartak Trnava away only.
Skalica vs Spartak Trnava head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Skalica 0 · draws 1 · Spartak Trnava 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Spartak Trnava | 1-1 | Skalica | Slovakia Super Liga |
| 2025-12-13 | Spartak Trnava | 2-0 | Skalica | Slovakia Super Liga |
| 2025-09-13 | Skalica | 0-4 | Spartak Trnava | Slovakia Super Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Slovan Bratislava vs Dukla Banská Bystrica — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Zemplín Michalovce v Podbrezová — match page 2026-10-24
- Dunajska Streda vs Ružomberok 2026-10-24
- Komárno vs AS Trencin 2026-10-25
- FK Košice vs Žilina — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Skalica, previous: Skalica v AS Trencin analysis
- Spartak Trnava, previous: Spartak Trnava – Slovan Bratislava, 2026-10-17