Mura vs Nafta preview
In the match between Mura and Nafta, the 1X2 probabilities show Mura at 39% to win, while Nafta stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, which occurs with a 7% probability. Mura has struggled recently with a form of D-D-L-D-L-L, while Nafta has a mixed record of W-L-W-W-L-L.
Our model indicates a 58% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score. However, Mura's expected goals are 1.24, which is lower than Nafta's 1.78. If Mura fails to improve their scoring, the predictions could be off. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Mura vs Nafta: model vs market
| Source | Mura | Draw | Nafta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | -18% | -2% | +20% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mura vs Nafta odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mura, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mura | 2.08 | 2.08 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.31 | 3.31 | +0.00 |
| Nafta | 3.19 | 3.19 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mura and Nafta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Mura / Nafta)
- 0.87 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Mura / Nafta)
- 1.32 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mura vs Nafta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mura goals. Columns: Nafta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mura vs Nafta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mura vs Nafta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mura | 39% | 2.54 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Nafta | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mura or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Nafta) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mura win by 2+ | 11% | 9.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mura and Nafta recent form
Mura
0W 3D 3L
Nafta
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mura at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Nafta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mura at home only, Nafta away only.
Mura vs Nafta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Mura 0 · draws 0 · Nafta 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Nafta | 5-2 | Mura | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Bravo vs Radomlje 2026-10-17
- Koper v Brinje-Grosuplje — match page 2026-10-18
- Maribor vs Celje 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Mura, previous: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura: odds and pick
- Nafta, previous: Nafta – Bravo, 2026-10-11