Maribor vs Celje preview
In the 1. SNL fixture between Maribor and Celje, the 1X2 probabilities show Maribor at 43%, Celje at 31%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance. Maribor has an expected goals figure of 1.56 compared to Celje's 0.76, suggesting a stronger attacking performance.
However, Celje has a better recent head-to-head record, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters, with Maribor having no wins. Additionally, there is a 41% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance for both teams to score, indicating potential for more goals. Maribor's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Celje has struggled with 3 losses in their last 5.
Maribor vs Celje: model vs market
| Source | Maribor | Draw | Celje |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | +14% | +2% | -16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Maribor below the model: +14.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Maribor vs Celje odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Maribor, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor | 2.35 | 2.20 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.50 | +0.04 |
| Celje | 2.56 | 2.75 | +0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Maribor and Celje expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (Maribor / Celje)
- 1.22 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Maribor / Celje)
- 0.77 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Maribor vs Celje score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Maribor goals. Columns: Celje goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Maribor vs Celje goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Maribor vs Celje
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maribor | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Celje | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Maribor or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Celje) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Maribor win by 2+ | 30% | 3.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Maribor and Celje recent form
Maribor
4W 2D 0L
Celje
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Maribor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celje away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Maribor at home only, Celje away only.
Maribor vs Celje head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Maribor 0 · draws 2 · Celje 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Celje | 1-1 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2026-04-04 | Celje | 1-0 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2026-02-01 | Maribor | 3-3 | Celje | 1. SNL |
| 2025-09-27 | Celje | 3-0 | Maribor | 1. SNL |
| 2025-07-20 | Maribor | 1-2 | Celje | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Bravo vs Radomlje 2026-10-17
- Mura v Nafta — match page 2026-10-17
- Koper v Brinje-Grosuplje — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Maribor, previous: Brinje-Grosuplje vs Maribor: odds and pick
- Celje, previous: Celje vs Omonia Nicosia prediction
- Celje, next: Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg: odds and pick