Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Celje and Red Bull Salzburg, the 1X2 probabilities show Red Bull Salzburg at 58% to win, compared to Celje's 13%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 0.58 for Celje and 1.47 for Red Bull Salzburg.
However, there is a 34% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance for both teams to score. This suggests that while Red Bull Salzburg is favored, an unexpected performance from Celje or a defensive lapse from Salzburg could lead to different outcomes. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg: model vs market
| Source | Celje | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 29% | 58% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 13% | 29% | 58% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Celje and Red Bull Salzburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.05
- Attack rating (Celje / Red Bull Salzburg)
- 0.76 / 1.50
- Defence rating (Celje / Red Bull Salzburg)
- 0.86 / 0.49
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celje goals. Columns: Red Bull Salzburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celje | 13% | 7.45 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.86 |
| No | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celje or draw) | 42% | 2.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Red Bull Salzburg) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win by 2+ | 31% | 3.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Celje and Red Bull Salzburg recent form
Celje
2W 1D 3L
Red Bull Salzburg
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Red Bull Salzburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Celje at home only, Red Bull Salzburg away only.
Other League Stage - 3 fixtures
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- Beşiktaş v Crystal Palace — match page 2026-10-22
- Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Plzen v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Celje, previous: Maribor vs Celje prediction
- Red Bull Salzburg, previous: Red Bull Salzburg v SCR Altach analysis
- Red Bull Salzburg, next: Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz – Red Bull Salzburg, 2026-10-28