Kaizer Chiefs vs Stellenbosch: model vs market
| Source | Kaizer Chiefs | Draw | Stellenbosch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 32% | 23% |
| Market | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| Published | 53% | 29% | 18% |
| Edge | -11% | +5% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.80.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Kaizer Chiefs vs Stellenbosch odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kaizer Chiefs, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaizer Chiefs | 1.70 | 1.65 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.30 | +0.05 |
| Stellenbosch | 5.00 | 5.39 | +0.39 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kaizer Chiefs and Stellenbosch expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.02
- Attack rating (Kaizer Chiefs / Stellenbosch)
- 1.26 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Kaizer Chiefs / Stellenbosch)
- 0.90 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kaizer Chiefs vs Stellenbosch score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kaizer Chiefs goals. Columns: Stellenbosch goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kaizer Chiefs vs Stellenbosch goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kaizer Chiefs vs Stellenbosch
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kaizer Chiefs | 53% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Stellenbosch | 18% | 5.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.49 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kaizer Chiefs or draw) | 82% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Stellenbosch) | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kaizer Chiefs win by 2+ | 21% | 4.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Kaizer Chiefs and Stellenbosch recent form
Kaizer Chiefs
2W 4D 0L
Stellenbosch
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kaizer Chiefs at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Stellenbosch away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kaizer Chiefs at home only, Stellenbosch away only.
Expected lineups
Kaizer Chiefs lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 16 R. Leaner
- 48 B. Cross
- 84 Inácio Miguel
- 42 T. Moloisane
- 2 T. Monyane
- 5 S. Mthethwa
- 39 R. Frosler
- 29 P. Mako
- 7 M. Shabalala
- 28 Mfundo Vilakazi
- 47 W. Duba
Bench: Z. Kwinika, L. Baartman, A. Velebayi, E. Chislett, K. Nkgwesa, B. Bvuma, Flávio Silva
Stellenbosch lineup · 4-4-2
- 17 S. Stephens
- 27 T. Mashego
- 4 L. Vena
- 26 S. Nkwali
- 28 L. Matlou
- 37 T. Lebitso
- 10 A. Du Preez
- 14 S. Kwayiba
- 11 Q. Plaatjies
Bench: N. Garrow, V. Andries, Keanan Johannessen, G. Taunyana, Q. Sibande, Daniels, C. Butsaka, B. Grobler
Kaizer Chiefs vs Stellenbosch head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Kaizer Chiefs 6 · draws 1 · Stellenbosch 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Kaizer Chiefs | 1-2 | Stellenbosch | Premier Soccer League |
| 2026-02-04 | Stellenbosch | 2-1 | Kaizer Chiefs | Cup |
| 2025-10-05 | Stellenbosch | 0-0 | Kaizer Chiefs | League Cup |
| 2025-08-10 | Stellenbosch | 0-2 | Kaizer Chiefs | Premier Soccer League |
| 2025-03-08 | Stellenbosch | 1-3 | Kaizer Chiefs | Cup |
| 2025-02-07 | Stellenbosch | 0-1 | Kaizer Chiefs | Premier Soccer League |
| 2025-01-08 | Kaizer Chiefs | 2-1 | Stellenbosch | Premier Soccer League |
| 2024-04-02 | Kaizer Chiefs | 0-1 | Stellenbosch | Premier Soccer League |
| 2023-08-30 | Stellenbosch | 0-2 | Kaizer Chiefs | Premier Soccer League |
| 2023-04-01 | Kaizer Chiefs | 2-1 | Stellenbosch | Premier Soccer League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Durban City vs Amazulu — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Richards Bay v Mamelodi Sundowns — match page 2026-10-13
- Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy 2026-10-13
- Golden Arrows vs Milford FC 2026-10-17
- Chippa United vs Kruger United — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants 2026-10-17
- Siwelele vs Polokwane City — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Kaizer Chiefs, next: Red Arrows – Kaizer Chiefs, 2026-10-17