Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants preview
In the Premier Soccer League fixture between Sekhukhune United and Marumo Gallants, the 1X2 probabilities show Sekhukhune United at 59%, with a likely scoreline of 1-0 at 13%. Sekhukhune United's expected goals stand at 1.72, compared to Marumo Gallants' 0.76.
However, both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 45%, indicating a possibility for a more open game. Recent form also suggests a challenge for Marumo Gallants, who have lost their last 6 matches. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants: model vs market
| Source | Sekhukhune United | Draw | Marumo Gallants |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 26% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 59% | 26% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sekhukhune United and Marumo Gallants expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Sekhukhune United / Marumo Gallants)
- 1.12 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Sekhukhune United / Marumo Gallants)
- 1.14 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sekhukhune United goals. Columns: Marumo Gallants goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sekhukhune United | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Marumo Gallants | 15% | 6.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.24 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sekhukhune United or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Marumo Gallants) | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sekhukhune United win by 2+ | 34% | 2.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sekhukhune United and Marumo Gallants recent form
Sekhukhune United
2W 2D 2L
Marumo Gallants
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sekhukhune United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Marumo Gallants away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sekhukhune United at home only, Marumo Gallants away only.
Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sekhukhune United 0 · draws 2 · Marumo Gallants 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Sekhukhune United | 1-1 | Marumo Gallants | Premier Soccer League |
| 2025-11-22 | Marumo Gallants | 1-1 | Sekhukhune United | Premier Soccer League |
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