Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns: model vs market
| Source | Richards Bay | Draw | Mamelodi Sundowns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 16% | 72% |
| Market | 10% | 20% | 70% |
| Published | 11% | 19% | 70% |
| Edge | +2% | -4% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.86 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mamelodi Sundowns below the model: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mamelodi Sundowns, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richards Bay | 9.80 | 8.90 | -0.90 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.56 | -0.14 |
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 1.27 | 1.32 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.02
- Attack rating (Richards Bay / Mamelodi Sundowns)
- 1.08 / 1.92
- Defence rating (Richards Bay / Mamelodi Sundowns)
- 1.62 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Richards Bay goals. Columns: Mamelodi Sundowns goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Richards Bay | 11% | 9.29 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.22 | |
| Mamelodi Sundowns | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Richards Bay or draw) | 30% | 3.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Mamelodi Sundowns) | 89% | 1.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mamelodi Sundowns win by 2+ | 52% | 1.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns recent form
Richards Bay
0W 3D 3L
Mamelodi Sundowns
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Richards Bay at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Mamelodi Sundowns away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Richards Bay at home only, Mamelodi Sundowns away only.
Expected lineups
Richards Bay lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 1 Ian Aubrey Otieno
- 37 S. Gwele
- 25 S. Mcineka
- 22 L. Mabuya
- 19 S. Nzama
- 77 L. Khumalo
- 20 M. Mthembu
- 12 S. Gumbi
- 27 N. Xulu
Bench: S. Khumalo, T. Sikhakhane, L. Mahala, Nhlakanipho Ngcobo, O. Mbambo, W. Ngema, T. Ndelu
Mamelodi Sundowns lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 30 R. Williams
- 23 F. Basadien
- 3 K. Ndamane
- 42 Malibongwe Khoza
- 22 T. Matuludi
- 38 S. Mthanti
- 4 T. Mokoena
- 17 T. Matthews
- 11 M. Allende
- 33 C. Mailula
- 13 I. Rayners
Bench: D. Lunga, Nuno Santos, B. León, T. Zwane, T. Cele, T. Morena, A. Van Wyk, R. Goss, M. Mvala
Richards Bay vs Mamelodi Sundowns head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Richards Bay 0 · draws 1 · Mamelodi Sundowns 9.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Richards Bay | 0-0 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| 2025-09-27 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 4-1 | Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
| 2025-08-03 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 4-0 | Richards Bay | 8 Cup |
| 2025-04-30 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 3-0 | Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
| 2024-12-28 | Richards Bay | 0-2 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| 2024-04-02 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 1-0 | Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
| 2023-08-23 | Richards Bay | 0-1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
| 2023-04-25 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 1-0 | Richards Bay | Premier Soccer League |
| 2023-02-07 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 3-2 | Richards Bay | Cup |
| 2023-01-06 | Richards Bay | 0-2 | Mamelodi Sundowns | Premier Soccer League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Durban City vs Amazulu — team news & stats 2026-10-13
- Kaizer Chiefs v Stellenbosch — match page 2026-10-13
- Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy 2026-10-13
- Golden Arrows vs Milford FC 2026-10-17
- Chippa United vs Kruger United — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Sekhukhune United vs Marumo Gallants 2026-10-17
- Siwelele vs Polokwane City — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Mamelodi Sundowns, next: Wiliete – Mamelodi Sundowns, 2026-10-18