Updated

Premier Soccer League · Matchday 8

Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy

· Ellis Park, Gauteng Province

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Orlando Pirates to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

20% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Orlando PiratesDrawTS Galaxy

Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOrlando PiratesDrawTS Galaxy
Model80%17%4%
Market78%16%6%
Published78%16%5%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.31.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Orlando Pirates, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.25Now 1.17 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Orlando Pirates1.251.17-0.08
Draw4.555.60+1.05
TS Galaxy10.6015.04+4.44

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Orlando Pirates and TS Galaxy expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.13Orlando Pirates
0.31TS Galaxy
Total expected goals
2.44
Attack rating (Orlando Pirates / TS Galaxy)
1.74 / 0.86
Defence rating (Orlando Pirates / TS Galaxy)
0.39 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1 18.0% 6.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 2 19.7% 6.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3 14.0% 4.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 12.3% 3.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Orlando Pirates goals. Columns: TS Galaxy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
24%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Orlando Pirates78%1.28
Draw16%6.12
TS Galaxy5%18.31
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.27
Under 2.556%1.79
Both teams to scoreYes24%4.14
No76%1.32
Double chance1X (Orlando Pirates or draw)95%1.06
12 (either side)84%1.20
X2 (draw or TS Galaxy)22%4.59
Handicap -1Orlando Pirates win by 2+55%1.82
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Orlando Pirates and TS Galaxy recent form

Orlando Pirates 5W 1D 0L
TS Galaxy 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Orlando Pirates at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 7 matches.

TS Galaxy away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Orlando Pirates at home only, TS Galaxy away only.

Expected lineups

Orlando Pirates lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 24 S. Chaine
  2. 3 N. Ndaba
  3. 5 N. Sibisi
  4. 6 L. Seema
  5. 2 B. Sigomoshe
  6. 33 T. Mokobodi
  7. 20 S. Selepe
  8. 12 O. Appollis
  9. 48 S. Masilela
  10. 23 G. Lungu
  11. 25 B. Radiopane

Bench: T. Moremi, E. Makgopa, N. Rapoo, M. Mthiyane, S. Dladla, S. Zulu, C. Dansin, K. Kgosietsile

TS Galaxy lineup · 3-1-4-2

  1. 16 I. Tapé
  2. 3 M. Mncwango
  3. 21 Junior Zindoga
  4. 24 Lennol Mathebula
  5. 8 M. Mbunjana
  6. 25 K. Mhlongo
  7. 2 M. Mvelase
  8. 14 Tshepo Kakora
  9. 13 S. Xulu
  10. 19 S. George
  11. 17 V. Letsoalo

Bench: Sipho Gift Maseti, M. Mahlangu, N. Nkosi, Seluleko Mahlambi, Anslin Williams, M. Rantoa, P. Fisher, S. Ngobeni

Orlando Pirates vs TS Galaxy head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Orlando Pirates 7 · draws 1 · TS Galaxy 2.

Orlando PiratesDrawsTS Galaxy
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-22TS Galaxy0-6Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
2025-09-30Orlando Pirates2-0TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
2025-05-17Orlando Pirates1-1TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
2024-10-29TS Galaxy0-2Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
2024-05-18TS Galaxy1-0Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
2023-12-09Orlando Pirates1-0TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
2023-04-30TS Galaxy1-2Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
2022-09-10Orlando Pirates2-0TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League
2022-05-02TS Galaxy1-0Orlando PiratesPremier Soccer League
2021-12-11Orlando Pirates2-0TS GalaxyPremier Soccer League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match