Updated

Premier Soccer League · Matchday 10Postponed

Polokwane City vs Kruger United

· Peter Mokaba Stadium, Polokwane

Alin prediction Polokwane City to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Polokwane CityDrawKruger United
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Polokwane City vs Kruger United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePolokwane CityDrawKruger United
Model42%36%23%
Market———
Published42%36%23%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Polokwane City and Kruger United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.94Polokwane City
0.85Kruger United
Total expected goals
1.78
Attack rating (Polokwane City / Kruger United)
0.70 / 0.92
Defence rating (Polokwane City / Kruger United)
0.99 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Polokwane City vs Kruger United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.1% 12.9% 6.0% 1.7% 0.4% 1 14.4% 14.7% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 2 7.4% 6.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 3 2.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Polokwane City goals. Columns: Kruger United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Polokwane City vs Kruger United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%
Over 1.5 55%
Over 2.5 27%
Over 3.5 11%
Both teams to score
33%
No goals (0–0)
18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Polokwane City vs Kruger United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Polokwane City42%2.41
Draw36%2.80
Kruger United23%4.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.525%4.08
Under 2.575%1.32
Both teams to scoreYes33%3.03
No67%1.49
Double chance1X (Polokwane City or draw)77%1.29
12 (either side)64%1.56
X2 (draw or Kruger United)58%1.71
Handicap -1Polokwane City win by 2+13%7.64
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Polokwane City and Kruger United recent form

Polokwane City 0W 4D 2L
Kruger United 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Polokwane City at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-4-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

Kruger United away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Polokwane City at home only, Kruger United away only.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match