Updated

Premier Soccer League · Matchday 10Postponed

Golden Arrows vs Marumo Gallants

· Princess Magogo Stadium, Durban

Alin prediction Golden Arrows to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

23% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Golden ArrowsDrawMarumo Gallants
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.92 vs 0.60.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Golden Arrows vs Marumo Gallants: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGolden ArrowsDrawMarumo Gallants
Model46%38%15%
Market———
Published46%38%15%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.92 vs 0.60.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Golden Arrows and Marumo Gallants expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.92Golden Arrows
0.60Marumo Gallants
Total expected goals
1.52
Attack rating (Golden Arrows / Marumo Gallants)
0.56 / 0.98
Defence rating (Golden Arrows / Marumo Gallants)
0.65 / 1.42

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Golden Arrows vs Marumo Gallants score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 23.2% 11.9% 3.9% 0.8% 0.1% 1 19.0% 13.2% 3.6% 0.7% 0.1% 2 9.3% 5.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 3 2.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Golden Arrows goals. Columns: Marumo Gallants goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Golden Arrows vs Marumo Gallants goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 77%
Over 1.5 46%
Over 2.5 19%
Over 3.5 7%
Both teams to score
22%
No goals (0–0)
23%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Golden Arrows vs Marumo Gallants

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Golden Arrows46%2.15
Draw38%2.60
Marumo Gallants15%6.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.516%6.17
Under 2.584%1.19
Both teams to scoreYes22%4.47
No78%1.29
Double chance1X (Golden Arrows or draw)85%1.18
12 (either side)62%1.63
X2 (draw or Marumo Gallants)54%1.87
Handicap -1Golden Arrows win by 2+15%6.56
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Golden Arrows and Marumo Gallants recent form

Golden Arrows 1W 2D 3L
Marumo Gallants 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Golden Arrows at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.40
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Marumo Gallants away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Golden Arrows at home only, Marumo Gallants away only.

Golden Arrows vs Marumo Gallants head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Golden Arrows 2 · draws 0 · Marumo Gallants 0.

Golden ArrowsDrawsMarumo Gallants
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-14Marumo Gallants1-2Golden ArrowsPremier Soccer League
2025-11-02Golden Arrows4-0Marumo GallantsPremier Soccer League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match