Updated

Premier Soccer League · Matchday 10Postponed

Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch

· Richards Bay Stadium (Umhlathuze), Richards Bay

Alin prediction Stellenbosch to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Richards BayDrawStellenbosch
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.11.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRichards BayDrawStellenbosch
Model22%27%51%
Market———
Published22%27%51%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.11.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Richards Bay and Stellenbosch expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Richards Bay
1.46Stellenbosch
Total expected goals
2.56
Attack rating (Richards Bay / Stellenbosch)
1.01 / 0.83
Defence rating (Richards Bay / Stellenbosch)
1.89 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 10.0% 8.2% 4.0% 2.0% 1 7.3% 13.7% 9.0% 4.4% 2.2% 2 4.7% 6.9% 5.0% 2.4% 1.2% 3 1.7% 2.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 4+ 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Richards Bay goals. Columns: Stellenbosch goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Richards Bay22%4.51
Draw27%3.70
Stellenbosch51%1.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.04
Under 2.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.92
No48%2.09
Double chance1X (Richards Bay or draw)49%2.03
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Stellenbosch)78%1.29
Handicap -1Stellenbosch win by 2+22%4.52
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Richards Bay and Stellenbosch recent form

Richards Bay 0W 1D 5L
Stellenbosch 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Richards Bay at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Stellenbosch away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-1
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Richards Bay at home only, Stellenbosch away only.

Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Richards Bay 2 · draws 0 · Stellenbosch 0.

Richards BayDrawsStellenbosch
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-07Richards Bay2-1StellenboschPremier Soccer League
2025-09-20Stellenbosch0-1Richards BayPremier Soccer League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match