Siwelele vs Orlando Pirates: model vs market
| Source | Siwelele | Draw | Orlando Pirates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5% | 13% | 82% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 5% | 13% | 82% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Siwelele and Orlando Pirates expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Siwelele / Orlando Pirates)
- 1.15 / 1.85
- Defence rating (Siwelele / Orlando Pirates)
- 1.57 / 0.42
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Siwelele vs Orlando Pirates score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Siwelele goals. Columns: Orlando Pirates goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Siwelele vs Orlando Pirates goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Siwelele vs Orlando Pirates
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Siwelele | 5% | 21.20 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.51 | |
| Orlando Pirates | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.49 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Siwelele or draw) | 18% | 5.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| X2 (draw or Orlando Pirates) | 95% | 1.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Orlando Pirates win by 2+ | 62% | 1.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Siwelele and Orlando Pirates recent form
Siwelele
1W 2D 3L
Orlando Pirates
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Siwelele at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Orlando Pirates away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Siwelele at home only, Orlando Pirates away only.
Siwelele vs Orlando Pirates head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Siwelele 0 · draws 1 · Orlando Pirates 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Orlando Pirates | 1-1 | Siwelele | Premier Soccer League |
| 2025-09-23 | Siwelele | 0-1 | Orlando Pirates | Premier Soccer League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Golden Arrows vs Marumo Gallants 2026-11-04
- Kaizer Chiefs v Amazulu — match page 2026-11-04
- Polokwane City vs Kruger United — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Chippa United vs Sekhukhune United 2026-11-04
- TS Galaxy vs Durban City — team news & stats 2026-11-04
- Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- Siwelele, previous: Marumo Gallants v Siwelele analysis
- Orlando Pirates, previous: Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs prediction