Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg preview
Hammarby FF faces IF Elfsborg with a 56% chance of winning compared to Elfsborg's 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 14% of the time according to our model. Hammarby has shown strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Elfsborg has drawn 3 of their last 6.
However, the prediction could be affected if both teams score, which our model suggests has a 41% probability. Additionally, the expected goals indicate Hammarby at 1.20 and Elfsborg at 0.85, which shows Hammarby is favored to score more. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg: model vs market
| Source | Hammarby FF | Draw | IF Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 32% | 24% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 14% |
| Published | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Edge | -6% | +3% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hammarby FF, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby FF | 1.53 | 1.40 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.75 | +0.55 |
| IF Elfsborg | 5.51 | 6.75 | +1.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (Hammarby FF / IF Elfsborg)
- 1.15 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Hammarby FF / IF Elfsborg)
- 0.53 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hammarby FF goals. Columns: IF Elfsborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hammarby FF | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| IF Elfsborg | 16% | 6.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hammarby FF or draw) | 84% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or IF Elfsborg) | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hammarby FF win by 2+ | 20% | 4.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg recent form
Hammarby FF
5W 0D 1L
IF Elfsborg
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hammarby FF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-1-2
- Win rate
- 77%
- Goals for / match
- 2.77
- Goals against / match
- 0.54
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 13
- They have won 16 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IF Elfsborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-3
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hammarby FF at home only, IF Elfsborg away only.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Hammarby FF 3 · draws 0 · IF Elfsborg 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | IF Elfsborg | 1-2 | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-11-09 | Hammarby FF | 3-0 | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-05-31 | IF Elfsborg | 0-2 | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Orgryte IS v Vasteras SK FK — match page 2026-11-07
- Degerfors IF vs Gais — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Halmstad vs Djurgardens IF 2026-11-08
- IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF 2026-11-08
- Kalmar FF v Sirius — match page 2026-11-08
- AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Hammarby FF, previous: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF prediction
- IF Elfsborg, previous: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS: odds and pick