Kalmar FF vs Sirius preview
In the matchup between Kalmar FF and Sirius, the 1X2 probabilities show Sirius at 50% and Kalmar FF at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Sirius, which aligns with their expected goals of 1.50 compared to Kalmar's 0.92.
Kalmar FF's recent form is concerning, with 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Sirius has improved, winning 3 of their last 6. The chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 44%, and both teams to score is at 48%, indicating a possibility for a low-scoring game. Factors such as Kalmar's struggling form could lead to an unexpected result.
Kalmar FF vs Sirius: model vs market
| Source | Kalmar FF | Draw | Sirius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 31% | 48% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Published | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Kalmar FF vs Sirius odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sirius, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalmar FF | 3.26 | 3.05 | -0.21 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.59 | -0.01 |
| Sirius | 2.04 | 2.12 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kalmar FF and Sirius expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.18
- Attack rating (Kalmar FF / Sirius)
- 0.59 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Kalmar FF / Sirius)
- 1.03 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kalmar FF vs Sirius score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kalmar FF goals. Columns: Sirius goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kalmar FF vs Sirius goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kalmar FF vs Sirius
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalmar FF | 28% | 3.54 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Sirius | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kalmar FF or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Sirius) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sirius win by 2+ | 23% | 4.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Kalmar FF and Sirius recent form
Kalmar FF
1W 1D 4L
Sirius
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kalmar FF at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.08
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 26 matches.
Sirius away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-1-2
- Win rate
- 77%
- Goals for / match
- 2.15
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 17 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kalmar FF at home only, Sirius away only.
Kalmar FF vs Sirius head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Kalmar FF 0 · draws 0 · Sirius 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Sirius | 3-2 | Kalmar FF | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Hammarby FF v IF Elfsborg — match page 2026-11-06
- Orgryte IS v Vasteras SK FK — match page 2026-11-07
- Degerfors IF vs Gais — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Halmstad vs Djurgardens IF 2026-11-08
- IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF 2026-11-08
- AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Kalmar FF, previous: Mjallby AIF v Kalmar FF analysis
- Sirius, previous: Sirius v Halmstad analysis