Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK preview
In the fixture between Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK, the 1X2 probabilities show Vasteras SK FK at 51%, while Orgryte IS sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Vasteras SK FK's stronger expected goals of 1.76 compared to Orgryte IS's 1.12.
Both teams to score stands at 57%, suggesting a good chance for goals from both sides. However, Orgryte IS's recent form of L-D-W-L-L-L could hinder their performance, while Vasteras SK FK comes in with a stronger form of W-L-W-L-W-W. This recent form could affect the predicted outcome, making the match less predictable than the statistics suggest.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK: model vs market
| Source | Orgryte IS | Draw | Vasteras SK FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Published | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vasteras SK FK below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vasteras SK FK, 5 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte IS | 3.36 | 2.84 | -0.52 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.56 | -0.09 |
| Vasteras SK FK | 1.99 | 2.25 | +0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Orgryte IS / Vasteras SK FK)
- 1.01 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Orgryte IS / Vasteras SK FK)
- 1.33 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Orgryte IS goals. Columns: Vasteras SK FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orgryte IS | 30% | 3.36 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Vasteras SK FK | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Orgryte IS or draw) | 56% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Vasteras SK FK) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasteras SK FK win by 2+ | 31% | 3.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK recent form
Orgryte IS
1W 1D 4L
Vasteras SK FK
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Orgryte IS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-6-5
- Win rate
- 15%
- Goals for / match
- 1.69
- Goals against / match
- 1.85
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasteras SK FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-5
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.54
- Goals against / match
- 1.77
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Orgryte IS at home only, Vasteras SK FK away only.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Orgryte IS 0 · draws 1 · Vasteras SK FK 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Vasteras SK FK | 2-0 | Orgryte IS | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-10-24 | Orgryte IS | 0-2 | Vasteras SK FK | Superettan |
| 2025-04-08 | Vasteras SK FK | 1-1 | Orgryte IS | Superettan |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Hammarby FF v IF Elfsborg — match page 2026-11-06
- Degerfors IF vs Gais — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Halmstad vs Djurgardens IF 2026-11-08
- IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF 2026-11-08
- Kalmar FF v Sirius — match page 2026-11-08
- AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Orgryte IS, previous: IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS: odds and pick
- Vasteras SK FK, previous: Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna: odds and pick