IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF preview
In the match between IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF, the 1X2 probabilities show IFK Goteborg at 42%, while Malmo FF sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance of occurring. IFK Goteborg has shown solid recent form with three draws followed by two wins, while Malmo FF has been inconsistent, recording two wins in their last six matches.
The expected goals indicate IFK Goteborg at 1.21 and Malmo FF at 0.90. While both teams to score stands at 43%, which suggests a moderate chance for both teams to find the net, the low Over 2.5 goals probability at 35% indicates that a high-scoring game may be less likely. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF: model vs market
| Source | IFK Goteborg | Draw | Malmo FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 33% | 29% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Published | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | 0% | +2% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF odds movement
Median bookmaker price on IFK Goteborg, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Goteborg | 2.35 | 2.36 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Malmo FF | 2.79 | 2.77 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.02
- Attack rating (IFK Goteborg / Malmo FF)
- 1.00 / 0.93
- Defence rating (IFK Goteborg / Malmo FF)
- 0.75 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: IFK Goteborg goals. Columns: Malmo FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Goteborg | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Malmo FF | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.41 |
| No | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (IFK Goteborg or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Malmo FF) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Goteborg win by 2+ | 16% | 6.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF recent form
IFK Goteborg
2W 3D 1L
Malmo FF
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
IFK Goteborg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-3
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malmo FF away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.23
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: IFK Goteborg at home only, Malmo FF away only.
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: IFK Goteborg 1 · draws 1 · Malmo FF 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Malmo FF | 4-0 | IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-08-24 | Malmo FF | 0-0 | IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
| 2025-05-25 | IFK Goteborg | 1-0 | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Hammarby FF v IF Elfsborg — match page 2026-11-06
- Orgryte IS v Vasteras SK FK — match page 2026-11-07
- Degerfors IF vs Gais — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Halmstad vs Djurgardens IF 2026-11-08
- IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF 2026-11-08
- Kalmar FF v Sirius — match page 2026-11-08
- AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- IFK Goteborg, previous: BK Hacken – IFK Goteborg, 2026-11-01
- Malmo FF, previous: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF prediction