Persha Liga · Matchday 10

Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs UCSA

· Yunist Stadium, Volochysk

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Ahrobiznes Volochysk to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Ahrobiznes VolochyskDrawUCSA

Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs UCSA: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAhrobiznes VolochyskDrawUCSA
Model57%24%18%
Market51%27%22%
Published53%26%21%
Edge+6%-2%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.99.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Ahrobiznes Volochysk below the model: +6.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk and UCSA expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.88Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.99UCSA
Total expected goals
2.87
Attack rating (Ahrobiznes Volochysk / UCSA)
1.15 / 0.98
Defence rating (Ahrobiznes Volochysk / UCSA)
0.96 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs UCSA score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 4.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 1 9.6% 11.6% 5.2% 1.7% 0.5% 2 10.0% 9.9% 4.9% 1.6% 0.5% 3 6.3% 6.2% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 4.5% 4.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Ahrobiznes Volochysk goals. Columns: UCSA goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs UCSA goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs UCSA

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ahrobiznes Volochysk53%1.90
Draw26%3.83
UCSA21%4.67
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.83
Under 2.545%2.21
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.84
No46%2.19
Double chance1X (Ahrobiznes Volochysk or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or UCSA)47%2.11
Handicap -1Ahrobiznes Volochysk win by 2+34%2.95
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk and UCSA recent form

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2W 2D 2L
UCSA 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.80
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
4 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

UCSA away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ahrobiznes Volochysk at home only, UCSA away only.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs UCSA head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2 · draws 1 · UCSA 1.

Ahrobiznes VolochyskDrawsUCSA
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-08UCSA2-1Ahrobiznes VolochyskPersha Liga
2025-09-19Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-0UCSAPersha Liga
2025-05-10Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-0UCSAPersha Liga
2025-04-13UCSA0-0Ahrobiznes VolochyskPersha Liga

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