Persha Liga · Matchday 10

Prykarpattia vs Metal Kharkiv

· MCS Rukh, Ivano-Frankivsk

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Prykarpattia to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PrykarpattiaDrawMetal Kharkiv

Prykarpattia vs Metal Kharkiv: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePrykarpattiaDrawMetal Kharkiv
Model43%31%26%
Market42%29%29%
Published42%30%28%
Edge+1%+2%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.94.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Prykarpattia and Metal Kharkiv expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.30Prykarpattia
0.94Metal Kharkiv
Total expected goals
2.24
Attack rating (Prykarpattia / Metal Kharkiv)
1.04 / 1.02
Defence rating (Prykarpattia / Metal Kharkiv)
0.87 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Prykarpattia vs Metal Kharkiv score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.0% 8.8% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 1 12.5% 14.3% 6.1% 1.9% 0.6% 2 8.9% 8.4% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 3 3.9% 3.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 1.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Prykarpattia goals. Columns: Metal Kharkiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Prykarpattia vs Metal Kharkiv goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Prykarpattia vs Metal Kharkiv

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Prykarpattia42%2.36
Draw30%3.37
Metal Kharkiv28%3.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.57
Under 2.561%1.64
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.19
No54%1.84
Double chance1X (Prykarpattia or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Metal Kharkiv)58%1.74
Handicap -1Prykarpattia win by 2+20%4.88
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Prykarpattia and Metal Kharkiv recent form

Prykarpattia 4W 1D 1L
Metal Kharkiv 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Prykarpattia at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Metal Kharkiv away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Prykarpattia at home only, Metal Kharkiv away only.

Prykarpattia vs Metal Kharkiv head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Prykarpattia 1 · draws 2 · Metal Kharkiv 5.

PrykarpattiaDrawsMetal Kharkiv
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-03Prykarpattia0-0Metal KharkivPersha Liga
2025-09-13Metal Kharkiv2-2PrykarpattiaPersha Liga
2024-11-23Prykarpattia1-2Metal KharkivPersha Liga
2024-09-28Metal Kharkiv2-1PrykarpattiaPersha Liga
2023-11-10Prykarpattia1-2Metal KharkivPersha Liga
2023-10-11Metal Kharkiv0-1PrykarpattiaPersha Liga
2021-11-13Metal Kharkiv4-0PrykarpattiaPersha Liga
2021-08-07Prykarpattia1-4Metal KharkivPersha Liga

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