Persha Liga · Matchday 10

SK Poltava vs Chernihiv

· Zirka Stadium, Kropivnitsky

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was SK Poltava to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SK PoltavaDrawChernihiv

SK Poltava vs Chernihiv: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSK PoltavaDrawChernihiv
Model52%29%19%
Market———
Published52%29%19%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.79.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

SK Poltava and Chernihiv expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48SK Poltava
0.79Chernihiv
Total expected goals
2.26
Attack rating (SK Poltava / Chernihiv)
1.00 / 0.85
Defence rating (SK Poltava / Chernihiv)
0.88 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SK Poltava vs Chernihiv score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.6% 7.0% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 1 14.1% 13.3% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.3% 8.9% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3 5.6% 4.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: SK Poltava goals. Columns: Chernihiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SK Poltava vs Chernihiv goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SK Poltava vs Chernihiv

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SK Poltava52%1.91
Draw29%3.46
Chernihiv19%5.30
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.53
Under 2.561%1.65
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.31
No57%1.76
Double chance1X (SK Poltava or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Chernihiv)48%2.09
Handicap -1SK Poltava win by 2+27%3.66
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SK Poltava and Chernihiv recent form

SK Poltava 2W 2D 2L
Chernihiv 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SK Poltava at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-0
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.

Chernihiv away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: SK Poltava at home only, Chernihiv away only.

SK Poltava vs Chernihiv head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: SK Poltava 2 · draws 2 · Chernihiv 0.

SK PoltavaDrawsChernihiv
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-11-25Chernihiv2-2SK PoltavaPersha Liga
2023-09-23SK Poltava2-0ChernihivPersha Liga
2022-11-20Chernihiv0-1SK PoltavaPersha Liga
2022-10-01SK Poltava1-1ChernihivPersha Liga

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