Persha Liga · Matchday 10

Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Polissya II

Full time3 – 3

Alin prediction was Lokomotiv Kyiv to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Lokomotiv KyivDrawPolissya II

Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Polissya II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLokomotiv KyivDrawPolissya II
Model56%26%18%
Market———
Published56%26%18%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.89.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Lokomotiv Kyiv and Polissya II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.89Polissya II
Total expected goals
2.64
Attack rating (Lokomotiv Kyiv / Polissya II)
0.94 / 1.00
Defence rating (Lokomotiv Kyiv / Polissya II)
0.84 / 1.43

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Polissya II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.3% 5.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 1 11.4% 12.3% 5.0% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.9% 9.7% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 3 6.3% 5.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 4.1% 3.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Lokomotiv Kyiv goals. Columns: Polissya II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Polissya II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Polissya II

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lokomotiv Kyiv56%1.78
Draw26%3.89
Polissya II18%5.57
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.04
Under 2.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.01
No50%1.99
Double chance1X (Lokomotiv Kyiv or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Polissya II)44%2.29
Handicap -1Lokomotiv Kyiv win by 2+32%3.08
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lokomotiv Kyiv and Polissya II recent form

Lokomotiv Kyiv 3W 1D 2L
Polissya II 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Lokomotiv Kyiv at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Polissya II away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Lokomotiv Kyiv at home only, Polissya II away only.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures