Persha Liga · Matchday 10

Kolos Kovalivka II vs Oleksandria

· Kolos Stadium, Kovalivka

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Oleksandria to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Kolos Kovalivka IIDrawOleksandria

Kolos Kovalivka II vs Oleksandria: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKolos Kovalivka IIDrawOleksandria
Model30%29%41%
Market20%24%56%
Published23%25%52%
Edge+10%+5%-15%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kolos Kovalivka II and Oleksandria expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.15Kolos Kovalivka II
1.38Oleksandria
Total expected goals
2.53
Attack rating (Kolos Kovalivka II / Oleksandria)
1.15 / 1.02
Defence rating (Kolos Kovalivka II / Oleksandria)
1.28 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kolos Kovalivka II vs Oleksandria score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 9.7% 7.5% 3.5% 1.6% 1 7.9% 13.9% 8.7% 4.0% 1.9% 2 5.3% 7.3% 5.0% 2.3% 1.1% 3 2.0% 2.8% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Kolos Kovalivka II goals. Columns: Oleksandria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kolos Kovalivka II vs Oleksandria goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kolos Kovalivka II vs Oleksandria

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kolos Kovalivka II23%4.41
Draw25%3.97
Oleksandria52%1.92
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.16
Under 2.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.91
No48%2.10
Double chance1X (Kolos Kovalivka II or draw)48%2.09
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Oleksandria)77%1.29
Handicap -1Oleksandria win by 2+20%5.09
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kolos Kovalivka II and Oleksandria recent form

Kolos Kovalivka II 3W 0D 3L
Oleksandria 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kolos Kovalivka II at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

Oleksandria away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Kolos Kovalivka II at home only, Oleksandria away only.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures