Persha Liga · Matchday 10

Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil

· Kolos Stadium, Kovalivka

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Yarud Mariupol' to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Yarud Mariupol'DrawNyva Ternopil

Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceYarud Mariupol'DrawNyva Ternopil
Model53%29%18%
Market50%28%23%
Published50%28%22%
Edge+3%+1%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.76.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Yarud Mariupol' below the model: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Yarud Mariupol', 2 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.91Now 1.81 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Yarud Mariupol'1.911.81-0.10
Draw3.203.25+0.05
Nyva Ternopil3.603.95+0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Yarud Mariupol' and Nyva Ternopil expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.47Yarud Mariupol'
0.76Nyva Ternopil
Total expected goals
2.23
Attack rating (Yarud Mariupol' / Nyva Ternopil)
1.19 / 0.87
Defence rating (Yarud Mariupol' / Nyva Ternopil)
0.82 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.9% 6.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1 14.6% 13.2% 4.5% 1.1% 0.3% 2 11.7% 8.8% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 3 5.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 2.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Yarud Mariupol' goals. Columns: Nyva Ternopil goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Yarud Mariupol'50%1.98
Draw28%3.58
Nyva Ternopil22%4.64
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.59
Under 2.561%1.63
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.37
No58%1.73
Double chance1X (Yarud Mariupol' or draw)78%1.27
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Nyva Ternopil)50%2.02
Handicap -1Yarud Mariupol' win by 2+28%3.60
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Yarud Mariupol' and Nyva Ternopil recent form

Yarud Mariupol' 4W 2D 0L
Nyva Ternopil 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Yarud Mariupol' at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nyva Ternopil away

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-2
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.14
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 7
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Yarud Mariupol' at home only, Nyva Ternopil away only.

Yarud Mariupol' vs Nyva Ternopil head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Yarud Mariupol' 2 · draws 1 · Nyva Ternopil 4.

Yarud Mariupol'DrawsNyva Ternopil
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-09Nyva Ternopil0-3Yarud Mariupol'Persha Liga
2026-03-04Nyva Ternopil3-2Yarud Mariupol'Friendlies Clubs
2025-10-19Yarud Mariupol'0-2Nyva TernopilPersha Liga
2025-05-23Yarud Mariupol'0-1Nyva TernopilPersha Liga
2025-04-19Nyva Ternopil2-3Yarud Mariupol'Persha Liga
2022-11-12Nyva Ternopil1-1Yarud Mariupol'Persha Liga
2022-09-23Yarud Mariupol'0-2Nyva TernopilPersha Liga

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