Persha Liga · Matchday 10

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Inhulets

· Yuvileiny Stadium, Sumy

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Viktoriya Mykolaivka to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Viktoriya MykolaivkaDrawInhulets

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Inhulets: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceViktoriya MykolaivkaDrawInhulets
Model44%32%25%
Market———
Published44%32%25%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.89.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Inhulets expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.26Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.89Inhulets
Total expected goals
2.14
Attack rating (Viktoriya Mykolaivka / Inhulets)
0.97 / 1.05
Defence rating (Viktoriya Mykolaivka / Inhulets)
0.80 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Inhulets score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.0% 9.1% 4.6% 1.4% 0.4% 1 13.4% 14.4% 5.8% 1.7% 0.5% 2 9.3% 8.2% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 3 3.9% 3.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Viktoriya Mykolaivka goals. Columns: Inhulets goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Inhulets goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Inhulets

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Viktoriya Mykolaivka44%2.30
Draw32%3.17
Inhulets25%4.01
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.76
Under 2.564%1.57
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.30
No57%1.77
Double chance1X (Viktoriya Mykolaivka or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)68%1.46
X2 (draw or Inhulets)56%1.77
Handicap -1Viktoriya Mykolaivka win by 2+20%4.94
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka and Inhulets recent form

Viktoriya Mykolaivka 2W 2D 2L
Inhulets 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Viktoriya Mykolaivka at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Inhulets away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Viktoriya Mykolaivka at home only, Inhulets away only.

Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Inhulets head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1 · draws 1 · Inhulets 4.

Viktoriya MykolaivkaDrawsInhulets
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Viktoriya Mykolaivka2-2InhuletsPersha Liga
2025-10-29Viktoriya Mykolaivka0-1InhuletsCup
2025-10-19Inhulets4-2Viktoriya MykolaivkaPersha Liga
2023-11-19Viktoriya Mykolaivka0-1InhuletsPersha Liga
2023-09-16Inhulets3-0Viktoriya MykolaivkaPersha Liga
2023-08-15Inhulets0-1Viktoriya MykolaivkaCup

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